Adapting to the challenges of warming
Abstract
Heat extremes on Earth have reached a disturbing new level in recent years. The July 2020 temperatures soared across Siberia and reached a record-breaking 38°C inside the Arctic Circle, continuing a line of record heat events globally. “Event attribution” calculations, which are an endeavor to apportion blame for extreme events through quantitative modeling, suggest that some events would have been nearly impossible without human-induced global warming. This includes the recent Siberian summer and the 2018 heat wave in Japan, which killed more than a thousand people (1, 2). Rising heat is creating new challenges for humanity that will require new adaptation and protection measures. Smart implementation requires careful calculation of how further global temperature rises will translate into short-term regional heat events and how these will translate into impacts on human health and activities, food supply, infrastructure, and ecosystems.
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References and Notes
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Science
Volume 370 | Issue 6518
13 November 2020
13 November 2020
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Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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Published in print: 13 November 2020
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RE: Climate action – Do not overlook human monitoring in health protection
We read with interest the perspective from Sherwood (1) and fully agree that there is a "need to more rigorously quantify the links between meteorological forecasts and practical consequences", especially regarding human heat-related health and safety. Heat stress remains a complex hazard resulting from the interaction of weather elements, body composition/surface area, clothing insulation, level of physical activity, pre-existing health condition, psychological state, and acclimatization (2). Everyone – and not only vulnerable individuals (e.g., elderly, residents of urban heat islands, pregnant women or children) – may be concerned. Thus enhancing surveillance also calls for a rethink of the "heat-health watch" system, given the predicted increase in heatwaves' frequency, intensity and length (3). This might be notably reinforced with the inclusion of human heat transfer advanced multi-node model (2, 4) in combination with individualized data collection (e.g., biomarkers, hydration status, basal or activity-induced metabolic rate) through wearables and cell phones-based apps (via global positioning system) (5). Associated with fine-scale weather metrics, more valid and precise information than time series and spatial models (fixed-point measurements) would be available for assessing any individual heat-related health risks and ultimately reducing the health burden of heat (5). Conversely to a "one-size-fits-all heat measure" (1), such "personalized/precision" medicine approach would authorize medical practitioners to track their patients' susceptibility and respond adequately. While providing sizeable insights regarding heat related illnesses diagnosis and interventions (5), this may also serve as promising education tool for empowering people. Accordingly, a recent survey (6) of the American population indicates that 25% recognize that the ongoing climate change raises serious concerns for human health, but less than 5% are able to correctly identify heat-related symptoms. Therefore, not only monitoring weather indices and physiological data, but also wide spreading up-to-date heat-related risks and prevention strategies are part of the challenges to face this "silent" killer.
Conflict of Interest
The authors have no conflicts of interest, or financial ties to disclose.
References
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