Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature
'Tis the seasonal
Anthropogenic climate change has become clearly observable through many metrics. These include an increase in global annual temperatures, growing heat content of the oceans, and sea level rise owing to the melting of the polar ice sheets and glaciers. Now, Santer et al. report that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature can also be measured (see the Perspective by Randel). They use satellite data and the anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models to show the extent of the effects and discuss how these changes have been caused.
Structured Abstract
INTRODUCTION
Fingerprint studies use pattern information to separate human and natural influences on climate. Most fingerprint research relies on patterns of climate change that are averaged over years or decades. Few studies probe shorter time scales. We consider here whether human influences are identifiable in the changing seasonal cycle. We focus on Earth’s troposphere, which extends from the surface to roughly 16 km at the tropics and 13 km at the poles. Our interest is in TAC, the geographical pattern of the amplitude of the annual cycle of tropospheric temperature. Information on how TAC has changed over time is available from satellite retrievals and from large multimodel ensembles of simulations.
RATIONALE
At least three lines of evidence suggest that human activities have affected the seasonal cycle. First, there are seasonal signals in certain human-caused external forcings, such as stratospheric ozone depletion and particulate pollution. Second, there is seasonality in some of the climate feedbacks triggered by external forcings. Third, there are widespread signals of seasonal changes in the distributions and abundances of plant and animal species. These biological signals are in part mediated by seasonal climate changes arising from global warming. All three lines of evidence provide scientific justification for performing fingerprint studies with the seasonal cycle.
RESULTS
The simulated response of the seasonal cycle to historical changes in human and natural factors has prominent mid-latitude increases in the amplitude of TAC. These features arise from larger mid-latitude warming in the summer hemisphere, which appears to be partly attributable to continental drying. Because of land-ocean differences in heat capacity and hemispheric asymmetry in land fraction, mid-latitude increases in TAC are greater in the Northern Hemisphere than in the Southern Hemisphere. Qualitatively similar large-scale patterns of annual cycle change occur in satellite tropospheric temperature data.
We applied a standard fingerprint method to determine (i) whether the pattern similarity between the model “human influence” fingerprint and satellite temperature data increases with time, and (ii) whether such an increase is significant relative to random changes in similarity between the fingerprint and patterns of natural internal variability. This method yields signal-to-noise (S/N) ratios as a function of increasing satellite record length. Fingerprint detection occurs when S/N exceeds and remains above the 1% significance threshold.
We find that the model fingerprint of externally forced seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. In these five datasets, S/N ratios for the 38-year satellite record vary from 2.7 to 5.8. Our positive fingerprint detection results are unaffected by the removal of all global mean information and by the exclusion of sea ice regions. On time scales for which meaningful tests are possible (one to two decades), there is no evidence that S/N ratios are spuriously inflated by a systematic model underestimate of the amplitude of observed tropospheric temperature variability.
CONCLUSION
Our results suggest that attribution studies with the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature provide powerful and novel evidence for a statistically significant human effect on Earth’s climate. We hope that this finding will stimulate more detailed exploration of the seasonal signals caused by anthropogenic forcing.
Trends in the amplitude of the annual cycle of tropospheric temperature.
Trends are calculated over 1979 to 2016 and are averages from a large multimodel ensemble of historical simulations. The most prominent features are pronounced mid-latitude increases in annual cycle amplitude (shown in red) in both hemispheres. Similar mid-latitude increases occur in satellite temperature data. Trends are superimposed on NASA’s “blue marble” image.
Abstract
We provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth’s climate.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Already a Subscriber?Sign In
Supplementary Material
Summary
Materials and Methods
Supplementary Text
Figs. S1 to S13
Resources
File (aas8806_santer_sm.pdf)
References and Notes
1
K. Hasselmann, On the Signal-To-Noise Problem in Atmospheric Response Studies (Royal Meteorological Society, London, 1979), pp. 251–259.
2
G. R. North, K. Y. Kim, S. S. P. Shen, J. W. Hardin, Detection of forced climate signals. Part 1: Filter theory. J. Clim. 8, 401–408 (1995).
3
M. C. MacCracken, H. Moses, First Detection of Carbon Dioxide Effects: Workshop Summary (1982); www.osti.gov/scitech/biblio/5590773.
4
G. C. Hegerl, H. von Storch, K. Hasselmann, B. D. Santer, U. Cubasch, P. D. Jones, Detecting greenhouse-gas-induced climate change with an optimal fingerprint method. J. Clim. 9, 2281–2306 (1996).
5
B. D. Santer, K. E. Taylor, T. M. L. Wigley, T. C. Johns, P. D. Jones, D. J. Karoly, J. F. B. Mitchell, A. H. Oort, J. E. Penner, V. Ramaswamy, M. D. Schwarzkopf, R. J. Stouffer, S. Tett, A search for human influences on the thermal structure of the atmosphere. Nature 382, 39–46 (1996).
6
S. F. B. Tett, J. F. B. Mitchell, D. E. Parker, M. R. Allen, Human influence on the atmospheric vertical temperature structure: Detection and observations. Science 274, 1170–1173 (1996).
7
T. P. Barnett, D. W. Pierce, K. M. Achutarao, P. J. Gleckler, B. D. Santer, J. M. Gregory, W. M. Washington, Penetration of human-induced warming into the world’s oceans. Science 309, 284–287 (2005).
8
P. J. Gleckler, B. D. Santer, C. M. Domingues, D. W. Pierce, T. P. Barnett, J. A. Church, K. E. Taylor, K. M. AchutaRao, T. P. Boyer, M. Ishii, P. M. Caldwell, ., Human-induced global ocean warming on multidecadal time scales. Nat. Clim. Change 2, 524–529 (2012).
9
B. D. Santer, K. E. Taylor, P. J. Gleckler, C. Bonfils, T. P. Barnett, D. W. Pierce, T. M. L. Wigley, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, W. Brüggemann, N. P. Gillett, S. A. Klein, S. Solomon, P. A. Stott, M. F. Wehner, Incorporating model quality information in climate change detection and attribution studies. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 106, 14778–14783 (2009).
10
K. Marvel, C. Bonfils, Identifying external influences on global precipitation. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 110, 19301–19306 (2013).
11
P. A. Stott, R. T. Sutton, D. M. Smith, Detection and attribution of Atlantic salinity changes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L21702 (2008).
12
D. W. Pierce, P. J. Gleckler, T. P. Barnett, B. D. Santer, P. J. Durack, The fingerprint of human-induced changes in the ocean’s salinity and temperature fields. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L21704 (2012).
13
L. Terray, L. Corre, S. Cravatte, T. Delcroix, G. Reverdin, A. Ribes, Near-surface salinity as Nature’s rain gauge to detect human influence on the tropical water cycle. J. Clim. 25, 958–977 (2012).
14
N. P. Gillett, J. Fyfe, D. Parker, Attribution of observed sea level pressure trends to greenhouse gas, aerosol, and ozone changes. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 2302–2306 (2013).
15
N. Christidis, P. A. Stott, Changes in the geopotential height at 500 hPa under the influence of external climate forcings. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 10798–10,806 (2015).
16
S. K. Min, X. Zhang, F. W. Zwiers, T. Agnew, Human influence on Arctic sea ice detectable from early 1990s onwards. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L21701 (2008).
17
P. A. Stott, D. A. Stone, M. R. Allen, Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003. Nature 432, 610–614 (2004).
18
P. A. Stott, N. Christidis, F. E. Otto, Y. Sun, J. P. Vanderlinden, G. J. van Oldenborgh, R. Vautard, H. von Storch, P. Walton, P. Yiou, F. W. Zwiers, Attribution of extreme weather and climate-related events. WIREs Clim. Change 7, 23–41 (2016).
19
B. D. Santer, T. M. L. Wigley, T. P. Barnett, E. Anyamba, in Climate Change 1995: The Science of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group I to the Second Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds. (Cambridge University Press, 1995), pp. 407–443.
20
J. F. B. Mitchell, D. J. Karoly, in Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, J. T. Houghton et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2001), pp. 695–738.
21
G. C. Hegerl et al., in Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, S. Solomon et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007), pp. 663– 745.
22
N. L. Bindoff et al., in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013), pp. 867– 952.
23
M. R. Allen, S. F. B. Tett, Checking for model consistency in optimal fingerprinting. Clim. Dyn. 15, 419–434 (1999).
24
D. Polson, G. C. Hegerl, X. Zhang, T. J. Osborn, Causes of robust seasonal land precipitation changes. J. Clim. 26, 6679–6697 (2013).
25
B. D. Santer, T. M. L. Wigley, M. E. Schlesinger, P. D. Jones, Multivariate Methods for the Detection of Greenhouse-Gas-Induced Climate Change (Elsevier, 1990), pp. 511–536.
26
C. Qian, X. Zhang, Human influences on changes in the temperature seasonality in midto high-latitude land areas. J. Clim. 28, 5908–5921 (2015).
27
K. Marvel, M. Biasutti, C. Bonfils, K. E. Taylor, Y. Kushnir, B. I. Cook, Observed and projected changes to the precipitation annual cycle. J. Clim. 30, 4983–4995 (2017).
28
D. J. Thomson, The seasons, global temperature, and precession. Science 268, 59–68 (1995).
29
M. E. Mann, J. Park, Greenhouse warming and changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature: Models versus observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 23, 1111–1114 (1996).
30
S. Solomon, Stratospheric ozone depletion: A review of concepts and history. Rev. Geophys. 37, 275–316 (1999).
31
S. Solomon, D. J. Ivy, D. Kinnison, M. J. Mills, R. R. Neely 3rd, A. Schmidt, Emergence of healing in the Antarctic ozone layer. Science 353, 269–274 (2016).
32
A. Hall, X. Qu, Using the current seasonal cycle to constrain snow albedo feedback in future climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L03502 (2006).
33
P. C. Taylor, R. G. Ellingson, M. Cai, Seasonal variations of climate feedbacks in the NCAR CCSM3. J. Clim. 24, 3433–3444 (2011).
34
C. J. W. Bonfils, T. J. Phillips, D. M. Lawrence, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Riley, Z. M. Subin, On the influence of shrub height and expansion on northern high latitude climate. Environ. Res. Lett. 7, 015503 (2012).
35
R. Bintanja, E. C. van der Linden, The changing seasonal climate in the Arctic. Sci. Rep. 3, 1556 (2013).
36
C. Parmesan, G. Yohe, A globally coherent fingerprint of climate change impacts across natural systems. Nature 421, 37–42 (2003).
37
T. L. Root, D. P. MacMynowski, M. D. Mastrandrea, S. H. Schneider, Human-modified temperatures induce species changes: Joint attribution. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 102, 7465–7469 (2005).
38
B. D. Santer, J. F. Painter, C. A. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, J. M. Arblaster, P. J. Cameron-Smith, N. P. Gillett, P. J. Gleckler, J. Lanzante, J. Perlwitz, S. Solomon, P. A. Stott, K. E. Taylor, L. Terray, P. W. Thorne, M. F. Wehner, F. J. Wentz, T. M. L. Wigley, L. J. Wilcox, C.-Z. Zou, Identifying human influences on atmospheric temperature. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 110, 26–33 (2013).
39
A. R. Stine, P. Huybers, I. Y. Fung, Changes in the phase of the annual cycle of surface temperature. Nature 457, 435–440 (2009).
40
A. R. Stine, P. Huybers, Changes in the seasonal cycle of temperature and atmospheric circulation. J. Clim. 25, 7362–7380 (2012).
41
J. G. Dwyer, M. Biasutti, A. H. Sobel, Projected changes in the seasonal cycle of surface temperature. J. Clim. 25, 6359–6374 (2012).
42
A. Donohoe, D. S. Battisti, The seasonal cycle of atmospheric heating and temperature. J. Clim. 26, 4962–4980 (2013).
43
S. Nigam, N. P. Thomas, A. Ruiz-Barradas, S. J. Weaver, Striking seasonality in the secular warming of the northern continents: Structure and mechanisms. J. Clim. 30, 6521–6541 (2017).
44
Q. Fu, C. M. Johanson, S. G. Warren, D. J. Seidel, Contribution of stratospheric cooling to satellite-inferred tropospheric temperature trends. Nature 429, 55–58 (2004).
45
Q. Fu, C. M. Johanson, Stratospheric influences on MSU-derived tropospheric temperature trends: A direct error analysis. J. Clim. 17, 4636–4640 (2004).
46
See supplementary materials.
47
C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, Sensitivity of satellite-derived tropospheric temperature trends to the diurnal cycle adjustment. J. Clim. 29, 3629–3646 (2016).
48
J. R. Christy, W. B. Norris, R. W. Spencer, J. J. Hnilo, Tropospheric temperature change since 1979 from tropical radiosonde and satellite measurements. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D06102 (2007).
49
C.-Z. Zou, W. Wang, Inter-satellite calibration of AMSU-A observations for weather and climate applications. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D23113 (2011).
50
F. J. Wentz, M. Schabel, Effects of orbital decay on satellite-derived lower-tropospheric temperature trends. Nature 394, 661–664 (1998).
51
C. A. Mears, F. J. Wentz, The effect of diurnal correction on satellite-derived lower tropospheric temperature. Science 309, 1548–1551 (2005).
52
C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, P. Thorne, D. Bernie, Assessing uncertainty in estimates of atmospheric temperature changes from MSU and AMSU using a Monte-Carlo technique. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D08112 (2011).
53
T. R. Karl, S. J. Hassol, C. D. Miller, W. L. Murray, Eds., Temperature Trends in the Lower Atmosphere: Steps for Understanding and Reconciling Differences. A Report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, 2006).
54
C.-Z. Zou, M. D. Goldberg, Z. Cheng, N. C. Grody, J. T. Sullivan, C. Cao, D. Tarpley, Recalibration of microwave sounding unit for climate studies using simultaneous nadir overpasses. J. Geophys. Res. 111, D19114 (2006).
55
C.-Z. Zou, M. Gao, M. Goldberg, Error structure and atmospheric temperature trends in observations from the Microwave Sounding Unit. J. Clim. 22, 1661–1681 (2009).
56
S. Po-Chedley, T. J. Thorsen, Q. Fu, Removing diurnal cycle contamination in satellitederived tropospheric temperatures: Understanding tropical tropospheric trend discrepancies. J. Clim. 28, 2274–2290 (2015).
57
C. A. Mears, M. C. Schabel, F. J. Wentz, A reanalysis of the MSU channel 2 tropospheric temperature record. J. Clim. 16, 3650–3664 (2003).
58
S. Po-Chedley, Q. Fu, A bias in the mid-tropospheric channel warm target factor on the NOAA-9 Microwave Sounding Unit. J. Atmos. Ocean. Technol. 29, 646–652 (2012).
59
M. Meinshausen, S. J. Smith, K. Calvin, J. S. Daniel, M. L. T. Kainuma, J.-F. Lamarque, K. Matsumoto, S. A. Montzka, S. C. B. Raper, K. Riahi, A. Thomson, G. J. M. Velders, D. P. P. van Vuuren, The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim. Change 109, 213–241 (2011).
60
K. E. Taylor, R. J. Stouffer, G. A. Meehl, An overview of CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 93, 485–498 (2012).
61
B. D. Santer, S. Solomon, G. Pallotta, C. Mears, S. Po-Chedley, Q. Fu, F. Wentz, C.-Z. Zou, J. Painter, I. Cvijanovic, C. Bonfils, Comparing tropospheric warming in climate models and satellite data. J. Clim. 30, 373 (2017).
62
W. J. Randel, L. Polvani, F. Wu, D. E. Kinnison, C.-Z. Zou, C. Mears, Troposphere-stratosphere temperature trends derived from satellite data compared with ensemble simulations from WACCM. J. Geophys. Res. 122, 9651 (2017).
63
M. C. Serreze, R. G. Barry, Processes and impacts of Arctic amplification: A research synthesis. Global Planet. Change 77, 85–96 (2011).
64
J. Marshall, K. C. Armour, J. R. Scott, Y. Kostov, U. Hausmann, D. Ferreira, T. G. Shepherd, C. M. Bitz, The ocean’s role in polar climate change: Asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing. Philos. Trans. R. Soc. A 372, 20130040 (2014).
65
S. Solomon, P. J. Young, B. Hassler, Uncertainties in the evolution of stratospheric ozone and implications for recent temperature changes in the tropical lower stratosphere. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L17706 (2012).
66
V. Eyring, J. M. Arblaster, I. Cionni, J. Sedlacek, J. Perlwitz, P. J. Young, S. Bekki, D. Bergmann, P. Cameron-Smith, W. J. Collins, G. Faluvegi, K.-D. Gottschaldt, L. W. Horowitz, D. E. Kinnison, J.-F. Lamarque, D. R. Marsh, D. Saint-Martin, D. T. Shindell, K. Sudo, S. Szopa, S. Watanabe, Long-term ozone changes ozone and associated climate impacts in CMIP5 simulations. J. Geophys. Res. 118, 5029–5060 (2013).
67
K. C. Armour, J. Marshall, J. R. Scott, A. Donohoe, E. R. Newsom, Southern Ocean warming delayed by circumpolar upwelling and equatorward transport. Nat. Geosci. 9, 549–554 (2016).
68
J. C. Fyfe, C. Derksen, L. Mudryk, G. M. Flato, B. D. Santer, N. C. Swart, N. P. Molotch, X. Zhang, H. Wan, V. K. Arora, J. Scinocca, Y. Jiao, Large near-term projected snowpack loss over the western United States. Nat. Commun. 8, 14996 (2017).
69
B. D. Santer, T. M. Wigley, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, S. A. Klein, D. J. Seidel, K. E. Taylor, P. W. Thorne, M. F. Wehner, P. J. Gleckler, J. S. Boyle, W. D. Collins, K. W. Dixon, C. Doutriaux, M. Free, Q. Fu, J. E. Hansen, G. S. Jones, R. Ruedy, T. R. Karl, J. R. Lanzante, G. A. Meehl, V. Ramaswamy, G. Russell, G. A. Schmidt, Amplification of surface temperature trends and variability in the tropical atmosphere. Science 309, 1551–1556 (2005).
70
Q. Fu, S. Manabe, C. M. Johanson, On the warming in the tropical upper troposphere: Models versus observations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L15704 (2011).
71
J. R. Christy, Testimony in Hearing before the Subcommittee on Energy and Power, Committee on Energy and Commerce, House of Representatives, March 8, 2011. Available online at www.nsstc.uah.edu/users/john.christy/christy/ChristyJR_Written_EP_110308.pdf.
72
Y. Kosaka, S.-P. Xie, Recent global-warming hiatus tied to equatorial Pacific surface cooling. Nature 501, 403–407 (2013).
73
M. H. England, S. McGregor, P. Spence, G. A. Meehl, A. Timmermann, W. Cai, A. S. Gupta, M. J. McPhaden, A. Purich, A. Santoso, Recent intensification of wind–driven circulation in the Pacific and the ongoing warming hiatus. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 222–227 (2014).
74
G. A. Meehl, J. M. Arblaster, J. T. Fasullo, A. Hu, K. E. Trenberth, Model-based evidence of deep-ocean heat uptake during surface-temperature hiatus periods. Nat. Clim. Change 1, 360–364 (2011).
75
G. A. Meehl, H. Teng, J. M. Arblaster, Climate model simulations of the observed early-2000s hiatus of global warming. Nat. Clim. Change 4, 898–902 (2014).
76
B. A. Steinman, M. E. Mann, S. K. Miller, Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures. Science 347, 988–991 (2015).
77
J. C. Fyfe, G. A. Meehl, M. H. England, M. E. Mann, B. D. Santer, G. M. Flato, E. Hawkins, N. P. Gillett, S.-P. Xie, Y. Kosaka, N. C. Swart, Making sense of the early-2000s warming slowdown. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 224–228 (2016).
78
C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, A satellite-derived lower-tropospheric atmospheric temperature dataset using an optimized adjustment for diurnal effects. J. Clim. 30, 7695–7718 (2017).
79
S. Solomon, K. H. Rosenlof, R. W. Portmann, J. S. Daniel, S. M. Davis, T. J. Sanford, G.-K. Plattner, Contributions of stratospheric water vapor to decadal changes in the rate of global warming. Science 327, 1219–1223 (2010).
80
S. Solomon, J. S. Daniel, R. R. Neely 3rd, J.-P. Vernier, E. G. Dutton, L. W. Thomason, The persistently variable “background” stratospheric aerosol layer and global climate change. Science 333, 866–870 (2011).
81
J. M. Haywood, A. Jones, G. S. Jones, The impact of volcanic eruptions in the period 2000-2013 on global mean temperature trends evaluated in the HadGEM2-ES climate model. Atmos. Sci. Lett. 15, 92–96 (2013).
82
G. A. Schmidt, D. T. Shindell, K. Tsigaridis, Reconciling warming trends. Nat. Geosci. 7, 158–160 (2014).
83
D. A. Ridley, S. Solomon, J. E. Barnes, V. D. Burlakov, T. Deshler, S. I. Dolgii, A. B. Herber, T. Nagai, R. R. Neely III, A. V. Nevzorov, C. Ritter, T. Sakai, B. D. Santer, M. Sato, A. Schmidt, O. Uchino, J. P. Vernier, Total volcanic stratospheric aerosol optical depths and implications for global climate change. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 7763–7769 (2014).
84
D. M. Smith, B. B. B. Booth, N. J. Dunstone, R. Eade, L. Hermanson, G. S. Jones, A. A. Scaife, K. L. Sheen, V. Thompson, Role of volcanic and anthropogenic aerosols in the recent global surface warming slowdown. Nat. Clim. Change 6, 936–940 (2016).
85
B. D. Santer, J. C. Fyfe, G. Pallotta, G. M. Flato, G. A. Meehl, M. H. England, E. Hawkins, M. E. Mann, J. F. Painter, C. Bonfils, I. Cvijanovic, C. Mears, F. J. Wentz, S. Po-Chedley, Q. Fu, C.-Z. Zou, Causes of differences in model and satellite tropospheric warming rates. Nat. Geosci. 10, 478–485 (2017).
86
M. Collins et al., in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013), pp. 867–952.
87
P. C. Taylor, M. Cai, A. Hu, J. Meehl, W. Washington, G. J. Zhang, A decomposition of feedback contributions to polar warming amplification. J. Clim. 26, 7023–7043 (2013).
88
G. Flato et al., in Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, T. F. Stocker et al., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2013), pp. 741–866.
89
Q. Shu, Z. Song, F. Qiao, Assessment of sea ice simulations in CMIP5. Cryosphere 9, 399–409 (2015).
90
J. A. Screen, C. Deser, I. Simmonds, Local and remote controls on observed Arctic warming. Geophys. Res. Lett. 39, L10709 (2012).
91
I. Cvijanovic, B. D. Santer, C. Bonfils, D. D. Lucas, J. C. H. Chiang, S. Zimmerman, Future loss of Arctic sea-ice cover could drive a substantial decrease in California’s rainfall. Nat. Commun. 8, 1947 (2017).
92
J. Hansen, L. Nazarenko, Soot climate forcing via snow and ice albedos. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 101, 423–428 (2004).
93
Q. Ding, A. Schweiger, M. L’Heureux, D. S. Battisti, S. Po-Chedley, N. C. Johnson, E. Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, K. Harnos, Q. Zhang, R. Eastman, E. J. Steig, Influence of high-latitude atmospheric circulation changes on summertime Arctic sea ice. Nat. Clim. Change 7, 289–295 (2017).
94
S. Solomon, D. Ivy, M. Gupta, J. Bandoro, B. Santer, Q. Fu, P. Lin, R. R. Garcia, D. Kinnison, M. Mills, Mirrored changes in Antarctic ozone and stratospheric temperature in the late 20th versus early 21st centuries. J. Geophys. Res. 122, 8940–8950 (2017).
95
B. D. Santer, C. Mears, C. Doutriaux, P. Caldwell, P. J. Gleckler, T. M. L. Wigley, S. Solomon, N. P. Gillett, D. Ivanova, T. R. Karl, J. R. Lanzante, G. A. Meehl, P. A. Stott, K. E. Taylor, P. W. Thorne, M. F. Wehner, F. J. Wentz, Separating signal and noise in atmospheric temperature changes: The importance of timescale. J. Geophys. Res. 116, D22105 (2011).
96
B. D. Santer, J. F. Painter, C. Bonfils, C. A. Mears, S. Solomon, T. M. L. Wigley, P. J. Gleckler, G. A. Schmidt, C. Doutriaux, N. P. Gillett, K. E. Taylor, P. W. Thorne, F. J. Wentz, Human and natural influences on the changing thermal structure of the atmosphere. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 110, 17235–17240 (2013).
97
J.-P. Vernier, L. W. Thomason, J.-P. Pommereau, A. Bourassa, J. Pelon, A. Garnier, A. Hauchecorne, L. Blanot, C. Trepte, D. Degenstein, F. Vargas, Major influence of tropical volcanic eruptions on the stratospheric aerosol layer during the last decade. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L12807 (2011).
98
J. C. Fyfe, K. von Salzen, J. N. S. Cole, N. P. Gillett, J.-P. Vernier, Surface response to stratospheric aerosol changes in a coupled atmosphere-ocean model. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 584–588 (2013).
99
R. R. Neely III, O. B. Toon, S. Solomon, J.-P. Vernier, C. Alvarez, J. M. English, K. H. Rosenlof, M. J. Mills, C. G. Bardeen, J. S. Daniel, J. P. Thayer, Recent anthropogenic increases in SO2 from Asia have minimal impact on stratospheric aerosol. Geophys. Res. Lett. 40, 999–1004 (2013).
100
G. Kopp, J. L. Lean, A new, lower value of total solar irradiance: Evidence and climate significance. Geophys. Res. Lett. 38, L01706 (2011).
101
R. E. Swanson, Evidence of possible sea-ice influence on Microwave Sounding Unit tropospheric temperature trends in polar regions. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30, 2040 (2003).
102
S. Manabe, R. T. Wetherald, R. J. Stouffer, Summer dryness due to an increase of atmospheric CO2 concentration. Clim. Change 3, 347–386 (1981).
103
R. T. Wetherald, S. Manabe, The mechanisms of summer dryness induced by greenhouse warming. J. Clim. 8, 3096–3108 (1995).
104
H. Douville, M. Plazzotta, Midlatitude summer drying: An underestimated threat in CMIP5 models? Geophys. Res. Lett. 44, 9967–9975 (2017).
105
F. Cheruy, J. L. Dufresne, F. Hourdin, A. Ducharne, Role of clouds and land-atmosphere coupling in midlatitude continental summer warm biases and climate change amplification in CMIP5 simulations. Geophys. Res. Lett. 41, 6493–6500 (2014).
106
P. H. Stone, J. H. Carlson, Atmospheric lapse rate regimes and their parameterization. J. Atmos. Sci. 36, 415–423 (1979).
107
D. M. W. Frierson, J. Lu, G. Chen, Width of the Hadley cell in simple and comprehensive general circulation models. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L18804 (2007).
108
J. Bandoro, S. Solomon, A. Donohoe, D. W. J. Thompson, B. D. Santer, Influences of the Antarctic ozone hole on Southern Hemisphere summer climate change. J. Clim. 27, 6245–6264 (2014).
109
X.-W. Quan, M. P. Hoerling, J. Perlwitz, H. F. Diaz, T. Xu, How fast are the tropics expanding? J. Clim. 27, 1999–2013 (2014).
110
N. P. Gillett, T. D. Kell, P. D. Jones, Regional impacts of the southern annular mode. Geophys. Res. Lett. 33, L23704 (2004).
111
D. W. J. Thompson, S. Solomon, P. J. Kushner, M. H. England, K. M. Grise, D. J. Karoly, Signatures of the Antarctic ozone hole in southern hemisphere surface climate change. Nat. Geosci. 4, 741–749 (2011).
112
Q. Fu, C. M. Johanson, J. M. Wallace, T. Reichler, Enhanced mid-latitude tropospheric warming in satellite measurements. Science 312, 1179 (2006).
113
D. J. Seidel, W. J. Randel, Recent widening of the tropical belt: Evidence from tropopause observations. J. Geophys. Res. 112, D20113 (2007).
114
Y. Y. Hu, Q. Fu, Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979. Atmos. Chem. Phys. 7, 5229–5236 (2007).
115
O. Heffernan, The mystery of the expanding tropics. Nature 530, 20–22 (2016).
116
I. M. Held, “The General Circulation of the Atmosphere” (2000); www.whoi.edu/fileserver.do?id=21464&pt=10&p=17332.
117
S. M. Kang, J. Lu, Expansion of the Hadley Cell under global warming: Winter versus summer. J. Clim. 25, 8387–8393 (2012).
118
U.S. Senate Environment and Public Works Committee Hearing, “Nomination of Attorney General Scott Pruitt to be Administrator of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency,” 18 January 2017; www.epw.senate.gov/public/_cache/files/6d95005c-bd1a-4779-af7e-be831db6866a/scott-pruitt-qfr-responses-01.18.2017.pdf.
119
J. A. Curry, Testimony in Hearing Before the Committee on Science, Space and Technology, House of Representatives, 29 March 2017; https://science.house.gov/sites/republicans.science.house.gov/files/documents/HHRG-115-SY-WState-JCurry-20170329.pdf.
120
R. W. Spencer, J. R. Christy, W. D. Braswell, UAH version 6 global satellite temperature products: Methodology and results, Asia-Pac. J. Atmos. Sci. 53, 121 (2017).
121
Q. Fu, C. M. Johanson, Satellite-derived vertical dependence of tropical tropospheric temperature trends. Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L10703 (2005).
122
C. M. Johanson, Q. Fu, Robustness of tropospheric temperature trends from MSU Channels 2 and 4. J. Clim. 19, 4234–4242 (2006).
123
N. P. Gillett, B. D. Santer, A. J. Weaver, Stratospheric cooling and the troposphere. Nature 432, 572 (2004).
124
J. T. Kiehl, J. Caron, J. J. Hack, On using global climate model simulations to assess the accuracy of MSU retrieval methods for tropospheric warming trends. J. Clim. 18, 2533–2539 (2005).
125
B. D. Santer, M. F. Wehner, T. M. Wigley, R. Sausen, G. A. Meehl, K. E. Taylor, C. Ammann, J. Arblaster, W. M. Washington, J. S. Boyle, W. Brüggemann, Contributions of anthropogenic and natural forcing to recent tropopause height changes. Science 301, 479–483 (2003).
126
D. S. Wilks, Statistical Methods in the Atmospheric Sciences (Academic Press, 1995).
127
H. M. van den Dool, S. Saha, Å. Johansson, Empirical orthogonal teleconnections. J. Clim. 13, 1421–1435 (2000).
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Science
Volume 361 | Issue 6399
20 July 2018
20 July 2018
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
This is an article distributed under the terms of the Science Journals Default License.
Submission history
Received: 8 January 2018
Accepted: 7 June 2018
Published in print: 20 July 2018
Acknowledgments
We acknowledge the World Climate Research Programme’s Working Group on Coupled Modelling, which is responsible for CMIP, and we thank the climate modeling groups for producing and making available their model output. For CMIP, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) provided coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals. We thank M. MacCracken (Climate Institute) and two reviewers for helpful comments. Funding: Work at LLNL was performed under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy under contract DE-AC52-07NA27344 through the Regional and Global Model Analysis Program (B.D.S., S.P.-C., M.D.Z., P.J.D., and J.P.) and the Early Career Research Program Award SCW1295 (I.C., C.B.). Additional support was provided by the LLNL-LDRD Program under project no. 13-ERD-032 (B.D.S., I.C., and C.B.); the Lee and Geraldine Martin Professorship at MIT (S.S.); NASA grant NNH12CF05C (F.J.W. and C.M.); and NASA grant NNX13AN49G (Q.F.). Author contributions: B.D.S., I.C., and C.B. conceived the study; B.D.S., S.P.-C., and I.C. performed statistical analyses; J.P. calculated synthetic satellite temperatures from model simulation output; C.M., F.J.W., and C.-Z.Z. provided satellite temperature data; and all authors contributed to the writing and revision of the manuscript. Competing interests: None. Data and materials availability: All primary satellite and model temperature datasets used here are publicly available. Derived products (synthetic satellite temperatures calculated from model simulations) are provided at https://pcmdi.llnl.gov/research/DandA/. Disclaimer: The views, opinions, and findings contained in this report are those of the authors and should not be construed as a position, policy, or decision of the U.S. Government, the U.S. Department of Energy, or the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Authors
Funding Information
U.S. Department of Energy: DE-AC52-07NA27344
U.S. Department of Energy: Early Career Research Program Award SCW1295
U.S. Department of Energy: DE-AC52-07NA27344
National Aeronautics and Space Administration: NNH12CF05C
National Aeronautics and Space Administration: NNX13AN49G
Lawrence Livermore National Lab LDRD Program: 13-ERD-032
M.I.T. Lee and Geraldine Martin Professorship:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory LDRD Program: 18-ERD-054
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Article Usage
Altmetrics
Citations
Export citation
Select the format you want to export the citation of this publication.
Cited by
- Are farmers willing to pay for participatory climate information services? Insights from a case study in peri-urban Khulna, Bangladesh, Climate Services, 23, (100241), (2021).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cliser.2021.100241
- Spatio-temporal changes of ecological vulnerability across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, Ecological Indicators, 123, (107274), (2021).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2020.107274
- Post‐Millennium Atmospheric Temperature Trends Observed From Satellites in Stable Orbits, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, 13, (2021).https://doi.org/10.1029/2021GL093291
- Impacts of Climate Change on the Hydro-Climatology and Performances of Bin El Ouidane Reservoir: Morocco, Africa, African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, (2363-2386), (2021).https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6
- Changing Lengths of the Four Seasons by Global Warming, Geophysical Research Letters, 48, 6, (2021).https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091753
- Detecting and quantifying palaeoseasonality in stalagmites using geochemical and modelling approaches, Quaternary Science Reviews, 254, (106784), (2021).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quascirev.2020.106784
- Emergence of seasonal delay of tropical rainfall during 1979–2019, Nature Climate Change, 11, 7, (605-612), (2021).https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-021-01066-x
- Seasonality of primary productivity affects coastal species more than its magnitude, Science of The Total Environment, 757, (143740), (2021).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143740
- Spatiotemporal variations and regional differences in air temperature in the permafrost regions in the Northern Hemisphere during 1980–2018, Science of The Total Environment, 791, (148358), (2021).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.148358
- Projected climate change impacts in the Tahoe Basin: Recent findings from global climate models, Quaternary International, (2021).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.quaint.2021.01.006
- See more
Loading...
View Options
Get Access
Log in to view the full text
AAAS login provides access to Science for AAAS members, and access to other journals in the Science family to users who have purchased individual subscriptions.
- Become a AAAS Member
- Activate your Account
- Purchase Access to Other Journals in the Science Family
- Account Help
Log in via OpenAthens.
Log in via Shibboleth.
More options
Register for free to read this article
As a service to the community, this article is available for free. Login or register for free to read this article.
Buy a single issue of Science for just $15 USD.
View options
PDF format
Download this article as a PDF file
Download PDF