Global food system emissions could preclude achieving the 1.5° and 2°C climate change targets
Thought for food
To have any hope of meeting the central goal of the Paris Agreement, which is to limit global warming to 2°C or less, our carbon emissions must be reduced considerably, including those coming from agriculture. Clark et al. show that even if fossil fuel emissions were eliminated immediately, emissions from the global food system alone would make it impossible to limit warming to 1.5°C and difficult even to realize the 2°C target. Thus, major changes in how food is produced are needed if we want to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement.
Science, this issue p. 705
Abstract
The Paris Agreement’s goal of limiting the increase in global temperature to 1.5° or 2°C above preindustrial levels requires rapid reductions in greenhouse gas emissions. Although reducing emissions from fossil fuels is essential for meeting this goal, other sources of emissions may also preclude its attainment. We show that even if fossil fuel emissions were immediately halted, current trends in global food systems would prevent the achievement of the 1.5°C target and, by the end of the century, threaten the achievement of the 2°C target. Meeting the 1.5°C target requires rapid and ambitious changes to food systems as well as to all nonfood sectors. The 2°C target could be achieved with less-ambitious changes to food systems, but only if fossil fuel and other nonfood emissions are eliminated soon.
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Supplementary Material
Summary
Materials and Methods
Supplementary Text
Data S1 to S3
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References and Notes
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Volume 370 | Issue 6517
6 November 2020
6 November 2020
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Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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Received: 8 January 2020
Accepted: 1 September 2020
Published in print: 6 November 2020
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to M. Springmann, C. Godfray, P. Scarborough, and K. Kimmel, who provided comments on the manuscript. Funding: This research was made possible through funding from the Balzan Award Prize to D.T.; the Grand Challenges Research Initiative at the University of Minnesota; the Wellcome Trust, Our Planet Our Health (Livestock, Environment and People), award no. 205212/Z/16/Z; and the U.S. Department of Agriculture (MIN-12-083). This publication was also developed as part of the Center for Air, Climate, and Energy Solutions, which was supported under Assistance Agreement no. R835873 awarded by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). It has not been formally reviewed by the EPA. The views expressed in this document are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the EPA. The EPA does not endorse any products or commercial services mentioned in this publication. Author contributions: J.D.H., N.G.G.D., K.C., S.K.T., D.T., M.A.C., and J.L. conceptualized the project; M.A.C., J.D.H., D.T., N.G.G.D., and J.L. developed the project methodology; M.A.C., N.G.G.D., D.T., and J.D.H. performed the analysis; M.A.C., J.D.H., and D.T. visualized the results; M.A.C. wrote the original draft; and all authors contributed to the review and editing of the manuscript. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Data and materials availability: Data used to create the figures is available in data S1. Results from all analyses are available in data S2. All data inputs and code required to run the analyses are available for download as data S3.
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Funding Information
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency: R835873
Wellcome Trust Centre for Mitochondrial Research: 205212/Z/16/Z
United States Department of Agriculture: MN-12-083
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