What Next for Agriculture After Durban?
Despite obstacles in the UN climate talks, modest progress and opportunities for scientific input on agriculture arose.
Abstract
Global agriculture must produce more food to feed a growing population. Yet scientific assessments point to climate change as a growing threat to agricultural yields and food security (1–4). Recent droughts and floods in the Horn of Africa, Russia, Pakistan, and Australia affected food production and prices. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that the frequency of such extreme weather events will increase (5), which, when combined with poverty, weak governance, conflict, and poor market access, can result in hunger and famine. At the same time, agriculture exacerbates climate change when greenhouse gases (GHGs) are released by land clearing, inappropriate fertilizer use, and other practices (6).
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References and Notes
1
Foresight, The Future of Food and Farming: Final Project Report: Futures (Government Office for Science, London, 2011).
2
INRA and Agricultural Research for Development (CIRAD), Agrimonde: Scenarios and Challenges for Feeding the World in 2050 (Editions Quae, Versailles, France, 2011).
3
McIntyre B. D., Herren H. R., Wakhungu J., Watson R. T., Eds., Agriculture at a Crossroads: A Synthesis of the Global and Sub-Global IAASTD Reports [International Assessment of Agricultural Knowledge, Science and Technology for Development (IAASTD), Island Press, Washington, DC, 2009].
4
Lobell D. B., et al., Science 333, 616 (2011).
5
IPCC, Summary for Policy Makers: Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2011).
6
Smith P., et al., in Climate Change: Mitigation. Contribution of Working Group III to Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Metz B., Davidson O. R., Bosch P. R., Dave R., Meyer L. A., Eds. (Cambridge Univ. Press, Cambridge, 2007), chap. 8.
7
Pretty J., et al., Int. J. Agric. Sustain. 9, 5 (2011).
8
Reij C., Tappan G., Smale M., Agroenvironmental transformation in the Sahel: Another kind of “Green Revolution” (IFPRI Discussion Paper 914, International Food Policy and Research Institute, Washington, DC, 2009); www.ifpri.org.
9
Decline in Danish agricultural greenhouse gasses (Danish Food and Agriculture Council, Copenhagen, 2011); www.agricultureandfood.dk.
10
The Johannesburg Communiqué—“Africa: A Call to Action,” African Ministerial Conference on Climate-Smart Agriculture, Johannesburg, South Africa, 13 to 14 September 2011; http://climatechange.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/documents/CSACommunique14.09.11.pdf.
11
Global Science Conference on Climate-Smart Agriculture, Wageningen Statement; www.gscsa2011.org/LinkClick.aspx?fileticket=eDIto5l7E0E%3d&tabid=2871.
12
Agriculture and Rural Development Day, www.agricultureday.org/openletter.
13
UN Climate Change Conference, Durban, November–December 2011, http://unfccc.int/2860.php.
14
Beddington J., et al., Achieving Food Security in the Face of Climate Change, Summary for policy makers from the Commission on Sustainable Agriculture and Climate Change [Consortium of International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Copenhagen, Denmark, 2011]; http://ccafs.cgiar.org/commission/.
15
Climate-Smart Agriculture: Managing Ecosystems for Sustainable Development, www.fao.org/climatechange/climatesmart/en/.
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Science
Volume 335 | Issue 6066
20 January 2012
20 January 2012
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Copyright © 2012, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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Published in print: 20 January 2012
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