A massive rock and ice avalanche caused the 2021 disaster at Chamoli, Indian Himalaya
A deadly cascade
A catastrophic landslide in Uttarakhand state in India on February 2021 damaged two hydropower plants, and more than 200 people were killed or are missing. Shugar et al. describe the cascade of events that led to this disaster. A massive rock and ice avalanche roared down a Himalayan valley, turning into a deadly debris flow upstream from the first of the two hydropower plants. The sequence of events highlights the increasing risk in the Himalayas caused by increased warming and development.
Science, abh4455, this issue p. 300
Abstract
On 7 February 2021, a catastrophic mass flow descended the Ronti Gad, Rishiganga, and Dhauliganga valleys in Chamoli, Uttarakhand, India, causing widespread devastation and severely damaging two hydropower projects. More than 200 people were killed or are missing. Our analysis of satellite imagery, seismic records, numerical model results, and eyewitness videos reveals that ~27 × 106 cubic meters of rock and glacier ice collapsed from the steep north face of Ronti Peak. The rock and ice avalanche rapidly transformed into an extraordinarily large and mobile debris flow that transported boulders greater than 20 meters in diameter and scoured the valley walls up to 220 meters above the valley floor. The intersection of the hazard cascade with downvalley infrastructure resulted in a disaster, which highlights key questions about adequate monitoring and sustainable development in the Himalaya as well as other remote, high-mountain environments.
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Supplementary Material
Summary
Materials and Methods
Supplementary Text
Figs. S1 to S17
Tables S1 to S5
Resources
References and Notes
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Science
Volume 373 | Issue 6552
16 July 2021
16 July 2021
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Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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Submission history
Received: 9 March 2021
Accepted: 27 May 2021
Published in print: 16 July 2021
Acknowledgments
We acknowledge all the individuals who shared videos, images, and other “on-the-ground” observations in real time and soon after the event. These eyewitness accounts greatly aided our interpretations. This study was coordinated with the IACS and IPA Standing Group on Glacier and Permafrost Hazards in Mountains (www.gaphaz.org). PlanetLabs, Maxar, and CNES provided prioritized satellite tasking and rapid data access, and for that, we are grateful. We thank the NGA EnhancedView Program Management Office for supporting Level-1B image access under the NextView License and composite DEM release. Any use of trade, firm, or product names is for descriptive purposes only does not imply endorsement by the U.S. government. The views and interpretations in this publication are those of the authors and are not necessarily attributable to their organizations. We thank three anonymous reviewers for their insightful comments, which strengthened this paper. Last, this paper is dedicated to those who lost their lives in the Chamoli disaster and those who remain missing. Funding: This work was supported by Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, Government of the Federal Republic of Germany (A.M.), Centre National d’Études Spatiales internal funding (E.B.), Centre National d’Études Spatiales, Programme National de Télédétection Spatiale PNTS-2018-4 (S.G.), CIRES Graduate Research Fellowship (M.J.), Department of Science and Technology, Government of India (A.Ku. and K.S.), European Space Agency CCI program and EarthExplorer10 4000123681/18/I-NB, 4000109873/14/I-NB, 4000127593/19/I-NS, 4000127656/19/NL/FF/gp (A.Kä.), European Space Agency Glaciers CCI+ 4000127593/19/I-NB (F.P.), Future Investigators in NASA Earth and Space Science and Technology 80NSSC19K1338 (S.B.), ICIMOD core funds (J.S.), Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (NSERC) 04207-2020 (D.H.S.), NASA Cryosphere 80NSSC20K1442 (U.K.H. and J.S.K.), NASA High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT-1) 80NSSC19K0653 (U.K.H., J.S.K., and D.H.S.), NASA High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT-2) 80NSSC20K1594 (S.R.), NASA High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT-2) 80NSSC20K1595 (D.E.S.), NASA Interdisciplinary Research in Earth Science 80NSSC18K0432 (U.K.H. and J.S.K.), Roshydromet R&D Plan, Theme 6.3.2 AAAA-A20-120031990040-7 (M.D.), Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation (SDC) 7F-08954.01.03 (S.A., H.F., and C.H.), Swiss National Science Foundation 200020_179130 (J.F.), Swiss National Science Foundation, project “Process-based modelling of global glacier changes (PROGGRES)”, Grant Nr. 200021_184634 (D.F.), and a Swiss Federal Excellence Postdoc Award (A.S.). Author contributions: The main author list order is preserved in each section. Writing, original draft: D.H.S., M.J., D.S., S.B., K.U., S.M., M.V.W.d.V., M.Me., A.E., E.B., J.L.C., J.J.C., S.A.D., H.F., S.G., U.K.H., C.H., A.Kä., J.S.K., J.L.K., P.L., D.P., S.R., M.E., D.F., and J.N.. Writing, review and editing: all authors. Methodology, investigation, and Formal analysis—satellite-based geomorphological mapping: D.H.S., W.S., J.L.C., J.J.C., M.D., S.A.D., U.K.H., C.H., A.Kä., S.J.C., F.P., and M.J.W.; flow modeling: A.S., M.Me., and U.K.H.; energy-balance modeling: A.Kä., J.S.K., and J.L.K.; DEM production: D.S., S.B., C.D.B., E.B., and S.G.; climate, weather, and geology analysis: M.J., D.S., M.Mc., R.B., S.A., H.F., U.K.H., J.S.K., S.G., S.R., A.P.D., J.F., M.K., S.L., S.M., J.N., U.M., A.M., I.R., and J.S.; social and economic impacts: K.U., S.M., S.A.D., J.S.K., M.F.A., and M.E.; video analysis: A.E. and F.P.; precursory motion: M.V.W.d.V., S.G., A.Kä., and M.D.; seismology: P.L. and M.J.; field mapping: M.F.A., A.Ku., I.R., and K.S. Data curation: D.H.S., D.S., S.B., W.S., M.V.W.d.V., M.Me., C.D.B., M.Mc., E.B., S.G., J.L.K., P.L., S.R., M.J. Visualization: D.H.S., M.J., D.S., S.B., W.S., M.V.W.d.V., M.Me., A.E., C.D.B., E.B., S.G., A.Kä., J.L.K., P.L., and D.F. Project administration: D.H.S. Competing interests: The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Data and materials availability: We used publicly available data sources whenever possible. The Sentinel-2 data are available from (57). PlanetScope satellite image data are available through Planet’s Education and Research Program (58). Pre- and post-event very-high-resolution satellite images are available through Maxar’s Open Data Program (59), with others available through the NGA NextView License. Airbus/CNES (Pléiades) images were made publicly available through the International Charter: Space and Major Disasters. The derived DEM Composite data are available from (60, 61). ERA5 data are available from the Copernicus climate Data Store. The r.avaflow model is available at www.avaflow.org. The r.avaflow code used for the simulation, the start script, and all of the input data are available at (62) along with a brief tutorial on how to reproduce the results presented in the paper.
Authors
Funding Information
National Aeronautics and Space Administration: 80NSSC19K1338
National Aeronautics and Space Administration: 80NSSC20K1442
National Aeronautics and Space Administration: 80NSSC19K0653
National Aeronautics and Space Administration: 80NSSC20K1594
National Aeronautics and Space Administration: 80NSSC20K1595
National Aeronautics and Space Administration: 80NSSC18K0432
Swiss Agency for Development and cooperation (SDC): 7F-08954.01.03
Swiss National Science Foundation: 200021_184634
Swiss National Science Foundation: 200020-179130
European Space Agency: 10 4000123681/18/I-805
European Space Agency: 4000109873/14/I-NB
European Space Agency: 4000127593/19/I-NS
European Space Agency: 4000127656/19/NL/FF
European Space Agency: 4000127593/19/I-NB
European Space Agency: 4000127593/19/I-NB
Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation:
Swiss Agency for Development and cooperation (SDC): 7F-08954.01.03
Centre national d’études spatiales: PNTS-2018-4
ICIMOD:
Centre national d’études spatiales:
Centre national d’études spatiales:
Government of Switzerland: Swiss Federal Excellence Postdoc Award
Government of Switzerland: Swiss Federal Excellence Postdoc Award
•Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, Government of the Federal Republic of Germany:
Roshydromet RD Plan: 6.3.2 AAAA-A20-120031990040-7
Department of Science and Technology, Government of India:
Swiss Agency for Development and cooperation (SDC): 7F-08954.01.03
Swiss Agency for Development and cooperation (SDC): 7F-08954.01.03
Swiss Agency for Development and cooperation (SDC): 7F-08954.01.03
CIRES: Graduate Research Fellowship
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