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RE: Genomic profile of papillary thyroid carcinoma after the Chernobyl accident
A tendency to overestimate health risks from low doses of ionizing radiation has been discussed previously [1-5]. Apparently, certain scientists exaggerating medical and ecological consequences of the anthropogenic increase in the radiation background contribute to a strangulation of the atomic energy, which would agree with the interests of fossil fuel producers. Nuclear power has returned to the agenda because of the concerns about increasing global energy demand and climate changes. Health burdens are greatest for power stations based on lignite, coal, and oil. The health burdens are smaller for natural gas and still lower for nuclear power. The same ranking applies also to the greenhouse gas emissions and thus probably to climate changes [6].
The research [7] makes a comparison between 359 papillary thyroid cancers (TCs) from patients who underwent radiation exposure from the Chernobyl accident (CA) and the control group - TCs from 81 patients born >9 months after CA. The "study population included a substantial number of papillary TCs occurring after <100 mGy", where development of radiogenic cancers from 131I exposure would be improbable [3]. In fact, doses <100 mGy at low rates may induce adaptive response against neoplastic transformation [8]. As discussed previously [2-5], the distinction between the "exposed" and control groups can be caused not by radiation but by the difference, on average, in the tumor grade. The incidence of TC among people younger than 15 years in the North of Ukraine (overlapping with the contaminated area) was reported to be 0.1 and in Belarus - 0.3 cases/million/year from 1981 through 1985 [9]. The detection rate of pediatric TC in the former Soviet Union prior to CA was lower than in other developed countries [4,10]. This indicates that there were undiagnosed cases in the population. Neglected cancers, detected by the screening and improved diagnostics, self-reported in conditions of increased public awareness after CA, or brought from other areas and registered as Chernobyl victims, were misinterpreted as rapidly growing radiogenic malignancies [2-5]. Some people were eager to be recognized as Chernobyl victims to gain access to health care provisions [11]. Cases from non-contaminated areas must have been averagely more advanced as there was no extensive screening there. Pediatric TCs found during first 10 years after CA were described as relatively aggressive, invasive and metastatic [12]. The proposed "aggressivity" apparently resulted from the detection of old neglected malignancies, interpreted as radiogenic tumors with the "rapid onset and aggressive development" [13]. The screening detected not only small nodules but also advanced TC, neglected because of the incomplete coverage of the population by medical checkups prior to CA. This predictable phenomenon was confirmed by the fact that the "first wave" TCs after CA were on average larger and higher-grade than those diagnosed later [14]. In this connection, the following phrase should be commented: "… the increased detection of pre-existing papillary TCs in the population that may not become clinically evident until later, if at all, due to intensive screening and heightened awareness of thyroid cancer risk in Ukraine" [7]. This concept has been propagated since 2011 and earlier [1-5]. As for individuals born after CA (the control group in [7]), the data pertaining to them originated from a later period, when the quality of diagnostics improved while the reservoir of advanced neglected cancers was largely exhausted by the screening. Therefore, the average stage and grade of TCs in the exposed group must have been higher than among the controls in [7].
As discussed previously, certain molecular-genetic characteristics of post-Chernobyl TCs are probably associated with a later stage of the tumor progression [2-5]. The study under discussion reported "…radiation dose-related increases in DNA double-strand breaks in human TCs developing after the CA… Non-homologous end-joining (NHEJ) [was] the most important repair mechanism… increased likelihood of fusion versus point mutation drivers" etc. [7]. These findings are not surprising: the DNA damage tends to accumulate along with the tumor progression. Double-strand breaks with error-prone repair drive genome diversity in cancer cells [15]. The NHEJ repair pathway is potentially mutagenic [16]. Some aberrant gene fusions drive the tumor progression as well [17]. At the same time, no association of the radiation dose with transcriptomic and epigenomic features was found [7]. This indicates that some transcriptomic and epigenomic markers are to a lesser extent associated with the neoplastic progression than the DNA lesions. The causative role of low-dose radiation e.g. "a dose-dependent carcinogenic effect of radiation derived primarily from DNA double-strand breaks" [7] is in fact unproven. The authors should think about re-interpretation of their valuable results. Associations of certain markers with the tumor progression (disease duration, tumor size, stage and grade, metastases etc.) are a potential field for the future research and re-interpretation of the data already obtained. The medical surveillance of populations exposed to low-dose radiation is important; but more consideration should be given to potential bias e.g. screening effect, dose-dependent selection and self-selection discussed in [2,3]. It can be reasonably assumed that the screening effect and increased attention of exposed people to their own health will result in new reports on the elevated cancer and other health risks in the areas with enhanced natural and anthropogenic radiation background. In the author's opinion, the epidemiological research of populations exposed to the Chernobyl fallout would hardly add much reliable information, among others, because of inexact dose reconstructions and probable registration of unexposed individuals as exposed. "Uncertainties in radiation dose estimates" were acknowledged in [7]. Indeed, "for 53 individuals, doses were estimated using detailed information derived from individual direct thyroid radioactivity measurements taken within 8 weeks of the accident" [7], whereas the half-life of 131I is ~8 days. Furthermore, dose-effect correlations can be explained by a recall bias: it is known that patients with TC tend to recollect circumstances related to radiation exposures better than healthy people [18]. It can be reasonably assumed that patients with advanced cancers would recollect such circumstances better than practically healthy individuals having small nodules. The higher the average dose estimate and/or radiocontamination in the area of residence, the greater would be the probability to undergo the screening. Apparently, some non-radiation-related features of post-Chernobyl TC are more prevalent in populations with higher average dose estimates. One of such features is the relatively high percentage of advanced neglected cancers detected after CA and misinterpreted as aggressive radiogenic malignancies [2-5].
In conclusion, some dose-effect correlations discussed in [7] and elsewhere can be explained by mechanisms unrelated to radiation. A promising approach to the study of dose-response relationships are lifelong animal experiments. The life duration is known to be a sensitive endpoint attributable to radiation exposures [19] that can reveal the net harm or potential benefit (within a certain range according to the concept of hormesis [20]) from low-dose exposures. Last but not least, the suppositions about enhanced aggressiveness of cancers from radiocontaminated areas may be conductive to the overtreatment [5,21,22].
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