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Globally observed trends in mean and extreme river flow attributed to climate change

Lukas Gudmundsson https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3539-8621 [email protected], Julien Boulange https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2167-8761, Hong X. Do https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9169-579X, Simon N. Gosling https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5973-6862, Manolis G. Grillakis https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4228-1803, Aristeidis G. Koutroulis https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2999-7575, Michael Leonard https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9519-3188, Junguo Liu https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5745-6311, Hannes Müller Schmied https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5330-9923, Lamprini Papadimitriou https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4232-4527, Yadu Pokhrel https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1367-216X, Sonia I. Seneviratne https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9528-2917, Yusuke Satoh https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6419-7330, Wim Thiery https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5183-6145, Seth Westra, Xuebin Zhang https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6551-6249, and Fang Zhao
Science • 12 Mar 2021 • Vol 371, Issue 6534 • pp. 1159-1162 • DOI: 10.1126/science.aba3996
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Change of flow

Anthropogenic influence on climate has changed temperatures, precipitation, atmospheric circulation, and many other related physical processes, but has it changed river flow as well? Gudmundsson et al. analyzed thousands of time series of river flows and hydrological extremes across the globe and compared them with model simulations of the terrestrial water cycle (see the Perspective by Hall and Perdigão). They found that the observed trends can only be explained if the effects of climate change are included. Their analysis shows that human influence on climate has affected the magnitude of low, mean, and high river flows on a global scale.
Science, this issue p. 1159; see also p. 1096

Abstract

Anthropogenic climate change is expected to affect global river flow. Here, we analyze time series of low, mean, and high river flows from 7250 observatories around the world covering the years 1971 to 2010. We identify spatially complex trend patterns, where some regions are drying and others are wetting consistently across low, mean, and high flows. Trends computed from state-of-the-art model simulations are consistent with the observations only if radiative forcing that accounts for anthropogenic climate change is considered. Simulated effects of water and land management do not suffice to reproduce the observed trend pattern. Thus, the analysis provides clear evidence for the role of externally forced climate change as a causal driver of recent trends in mean and extreme river flow at the global scale.
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Supplementary Material

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Materials and Methods
Figs. S1 to S12
Tables S1 to S7
References (36–44)

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Science
Volume 371 | Issue 6534
12 March 2021

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Copyright © 2021 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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Received: 29 November 2019
Accepted: 25 January 2021
Published in print: 12 March 2021

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Acknowledgments

Funding: We acknowledge financial support as follows: L.G. and S.I.S. were supported through the H2020 projects CRESCENDO (grant no. 641816) and 4C (grant no. 821003). S.I.S. acknowledges support from the European Research Council through the ERC DROUGHT-HEAT project (grant no. FP7-IDEAS-ERC-617518). H.M.S. is supported in part by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant no. 01LS1711F). H.X.D. is supported by the University of Michigan (grant no. U064474). W.T. acknowledges support from the Uniscientia Foundation and the ETH Zurich Foundation (grant no. Fel-45 15-1). J.L. is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant nos. 41625001 and 41571022) and the Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences (grant no. XDA20060402). J.B. acknowledges support from MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI (grant no. 16H06291) and the Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund (grant no. 2RF-1802). Y.P. acknowledges support from the National Science Foundation (grant no. 1752729). Y.S. was supported by the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology of Japan (Integrated Research Program for Advancing Climate Models) (grant no. JPMXD0717935715). M.G.G. received support from the Greek State Scholarship Foundation (IKY) (grant no. MIS5033021). Author contributions: L.G. conceptualized the study, conducted the data analysis, and drafted the paper with contributions from all co-authors. H.M.S., J.B., W.T., and Y.S. conducted model simulations contributing to the ISIMIP ensembles. S.N.G. and H.M.S. coordinated the ISIMIP model simulations. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Data and materials availability: Observed river flow indices can be downloaded from PANGAEA (35). The model-based data are freely available through the ISIMIP project [ISIMIP2a: available through GFZ Data Services (30); ISIMIP2b: available at https://esgf-data.dkrz.de/projects/esgf-dkrz/].

Authors

Affiliations

Lukas Gudmundsson* https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3539-8621 [email protected]
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland.
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Julien Boulange https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2167-8761
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan.
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Hong X. Do https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9169-579X
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
Faculty of Environment and Natural Resources, Nong Lam University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam.
School for Environment and Sustainability, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA.
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Simon N. Gosling https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5973-6862
School of Geography, University of Nottingham, Nottingham NG7 2RD, UK.
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Manolis G. Grillakis https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4228-1803
Institute for Mediterranean Studies, Foundation for Research and Technology Hellas, Rethymno 74100, Greece.
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Aristeidis G. Koutroulis https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2999-7575
School of Environmental Engineering, Technical University of Crete, Chania, Greece.
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Michael Leonard https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9519-3188
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
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Junguo Liu https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5745-6311
School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Southern University of Science and Technology (SUSTech), Shenzhen 518055, China.
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Hannes Müller Schmied https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5330-9923
Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe University Frankfurt, Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
Senckenberg Leibniz Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
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Lamprini Papadimitriou https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4232-4527
Cranfield Water Science Institute, Cranfield University, Cranfield, UK.
Mott MacDonald Ltd, Cambridge, UK.
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Yadu Pokhrel https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1367-216X
Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI, USA.
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Sonia I. Seneviratne https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9528-2917
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland.
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Yusuke Satoh https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6419-7330
National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Tsukuba, Japan.
International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg, Austria.
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Wim Thiery https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5183-6145
Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Department of Environmental Systems Science, ETH Zurich, Zürich, Switzerland.
Department of Hydrology and Hydraulic Engineering, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Brussels, Belgium.
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Seth Westra
School of Civil, Environmental and Mining Engineering, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia.
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Xuebin Zhang https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6551-6249
Environment Canada, Toronto, ON, Canada.
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Fang Zhao
Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai, China.
Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Potsdam, Germany.
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Funding Information

H2020 Societal Challenges: 641816 (CRESCENDO)
H2020 Societal Challenges: 641816 (CRESCENDO)
Strategic Priority Research Program of Chinese Academy of Sciences: XDA20060402
Uniscientia Foundation:
German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF): 01LS1711F
Greek State Scholarship Foundation (IKY): MIS5033021
MEXT/JSPS KAKENHI: 16H06291
Environmental Research and Technology Development Fund: 2RF-1802

Notes

*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

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