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Research Article

Landscape-scale forest loss as a catalyst of population and biodiversity change

Gergana N. Daskalova https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5674-5322 [email protected], Isla H. Myers-Smith https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8417-6112, Anne D. Bjorkman https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2174-7800, Shane A. Blowes https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6310-3670, Sarah R. Supp https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0072-029X, Anne E. Magurran https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0036-2795, and Maria Dornelas https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2077-7055
Science • 19 Jun 2020 • Vol 368, Issue 6497 • pp. 1341-1347 • DOI: 10.1126/science.aba1289
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Land-use change and forest biodiversity

Land-use change by humans, particularly forest loss, is influencing Earth's biodiversity through time. To assess the influence of forest loss on population and biodiversity change, Daskalova et al. integrated data from more than 6000 time series of species' abundance, richness, and composition in ecological assemblages around the world. Forest loss leads to both positive and negative responses of populations and biodiversity, and the temporal lags in population and biodiversity change after forest loss can extend up to half a century. Land-use change precipitates divergent population and biodiversity change. This analysis has consequences for projections of human impact, ongoing conservation, and assessments of biodiversity change.
Science, this issue p. 1341

Abstract

Global biodiversity assessments have highlighted land-use change as a key driver of biodiversity change. However, there is little empirical evidence of how habitat transformations such as forest loss and gain are reshaping biodiversity over time. We quantified how change in forest cover has influenced temporal shifts in populations and ecological assemblages from 6090 globally distributed time series across six taxonomic groups. We found that local-scale increases and decreases in abundance, species richness, and temporal species replacement (turnover) were intensified by as much as 48% after forest loss. Temporal lags in population- and assemblage-level shifts after forest loss extended up to 50 years and increased with species’ generation time. Our findings that forest loss catalyzes population and biodiversity change emphasize the complex biotic consequences of land-use change.
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Supplementary Material

Summary

Materials and Methods
Figs. S1 to S17
Tables S1 to S4
References (56–271)

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Volume 368 | Issue 6497
19 June 2020

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Received: 6 November 2019
Accepted: 7 April 2020
Published in print: 19 June 2020

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Acknowledgments

We thank WWF International and the Zoological Society of London for compiling the Living Planet Database; R. Freeman and L. McRae for useful discussions; the BioTIME team for compiling the BioTIME database; F. Moyes for managing the BioTIME database; the creators of the Land Use Harmonization Database; the Hansen lab for producing the Forest Cover Change Database; NASA for producing the MODIS Landcover Database; the Forest & Nature Lab at Ghent University for a stimulating discussion on historic and contemporary land-use change and choosing appropriate baselines for comparison of biodiversity change through time; A. Phillimore and K. Dexter for providing advice during the conceptualization of the study; L. Antão and M. Vellend for providing feedback on the draft manuscript; and the anonymous reviewers whose comments greatly enhanced our work. Funding: The BioTIME database was supported by ERC AdG BioTIME 250189 and ERC PoC BioCHANGE 727440. We thank the ERC projects BioTIME and BioCHANGE for supporting the initial data synthesis work that led to this study, and the Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity for continued funding of the database. Also supported by a Carnegie-Caledonian PhD Scholarship and NERC doctoral training partnership grant NE/L002558/1 (G.N.D.), a Leverhulme Fellowship and the Leverhulme Centre for Anthropocene Biodiversity (M.D.), Leverhulme Project Grant RPG-2019-402 (A.E.M. and M.D.), and the German Centre of Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig (funded by the German Research Foundation; FZT 118, S.A.B.). Author contributions: G.N.D., M.D., and I.H.M.-S. conceptualized the study; G.N.D. integrated databases and conducted statistical analyses with input from S.A.B., I.H.M.-S., A.D.B., and M.D.; G.N.D. created the figures with input from co-authors; S.A.B., M.D., and S.R.S. wrote the code for the rarefaction of the BioTIME studies; G.N.D. wrote the first draft; and all authors contributed to revisions. I.H.M.-S. was the primary supervisor, M.D. the co-supervisor, and A.D.B. is on the supervisory committee for G.N.D. A.E.M. and M.D. fund the compilation of the BioTIME database. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Data and materials availability: Code for the rarefaction of the BioTIME Database is available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1475218. Code for statistical analyses is available at http://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1490144. Population and biodiversity data are freely available in the Living Planet and BioTIME databases (25, 26). The Living Planet Database can be accessed on www.livingplanetindex.org/data_portal. The BioTIME Database can be accessed on Zenodo at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1211105 or through the BioTIME website at http://biotime.st-andrews.ac.uk. The public studies that were included in the version of BioTIME we analyzed can be downloaded from http://biotime.st-andrews.ac.uk/BioTIME_download.php. Land-use change data are publicly available in the Land Use Harmonization Database (22), the Forest Cover Change Database (23), and the MODIS Landcover Database (24).

Authors

Affiliations

Gergana N. Daskalova* https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5674-5322 [email protected]
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Scotland.
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Isla H. Myers-Smith https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8417-6112
School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh EH9 3FF, Scotland.
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Anne D. Bjorkman https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2174-7800
Biological and Environmental Sciences, University of Gothenburg, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden.
Gothenburg Global Biodiversity Centre, 405 30 Gothenburg, Sweden.
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Shane A. Blowes https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6310-3670
German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), 04103 Leipzig, Germany.
Department of Computer Science, Martin Luther University Halle-Wittenberg, 06108 Halle (Salle), Germany.
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Sarah R. Supp https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0072-029X
Data Analytics Program, Denison University, Granville, OH 43023, USA
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Anne E. Magurran https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0036-2795
Centre for Biological Diversity, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9TF, Scotland.
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Maria Dornelas https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2077-7055
Centre for Biological Diversity, University of St Andrews, St Andrews KY16 9TF, Scotland.
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Funding Information

Notes

*Corresponding author. Email: gnda[email protected]

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