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Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought

A. Park Williams https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8176-8166 [email protected], Edward R. Cook, Jason E. Smerdon https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6276-0249, Benjamin I. Cook, John T. Abatzoglou https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7599-9750, Kasey Bolles https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7547-6730, Seung H. Baek https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8369-3081, Andrew M. Badger https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4537-9993, and Ben Livneh https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5445-2473
Science • 17 Apr 2020 • Vol 368, Issue 6488 • pp. 314-318 • DOI: 10.1126/science.aaz9600
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This article has a correction.
Please see: Erratum for the Report “Large contribution from anthropogenic warming to an emerging North American megadrought” by A. Park Williams, E. R. Cook, J. E. Smerdon, B. I. Cook, J. T. Abatzoglou, K. Bolles, S. H. Baek, A. M. Badger, B. Livneh -

A trend of warming and drying

Global warming has pushed what would have been a moderate drought in southwestern North America into megadrought territory. Williams et al. used a combination of hydrological modeling and tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to show that the period from 2000 to 2018 was the driest 19-year span since the late 1500s and the second driest since 800 CE (see the Perspective by Stahle). This appears to be just the beginning of a more extreme trend toward megadrought as global warming continues.
Science, this issue p. 314; see also p. 238

Abstract

Severe and persistent 21st-century drought in southwestern North America (SWNA) motivates comparisons to medieval megadroughts and questions about the role of anthropogenic climate change. We use hydrological modeling and new 1200-year tree-ring reconstructions of summer soil moisture to demonstrate that the 2000–2018 SWNA drought was the second driest 19-year period since 800 CE, exceeded only by a late-1500s megadrought. The megadrought-like trajectory of 2000–2018 soil moisture was driven by natural variability superimposed on drying due to anthropogenic warming. Anthropogenic trends in temperature, relative humidity, and precipitation estimated from 31 climate models account for 46% (model interquartiles of 34 to 103%) of the 2000–2018 drought severity, pushing an otherwise moderate drought onto a trajectory comparable to the worst SWNA megadroughts since 800 CE.
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Materials and Methods
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Tables S1 and S2
References (46–90)

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Volume 368 | Issue 6488
17 April 2020

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Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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Received: 23 October 2019
Accepted: 10 March 2020
Published in print: 17 April 2020

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Acknowledgments

This work would not be possible without the tree-ring data from many gracious contributors, largely through the International Tree-Ring Databank hosted by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Additional thanks to J. Littell, who provided unpublished raw ring-width measurements from 18 sites in Idaho, Oregon, and Washington. J. Littell performed the sampling and tree-ring measurements used for these chronologies.Thanks to R. Seager for helpful feedback. Funding: Funding came from NSF AGS-1703029 (A.P.W., E.R.C., and K.B.), AGS-1602581 (J.E.S., A.P.W., and E.R.C.), AGS-1805490 (J.E.S.), and AGS-1243204 (J.E.S.); NASA 16-MAP16-0081 (A.P.W. and B.I.C.); NOAA NA15OAR4310144 and NA16OAR4310132 (A.M.B. and B.L.); and Columbia University’s Center for Climate and Life (A.P.W.). This work utilized the Summit supercomputer, which is supported by the National Science Foundation (awards ACI-1532235 and ACI-1532236), the University of Colorado Boulder, and Colorado State University. Author contributions: The study was conceived by A.P.W., E.R.C., J.E.S., B.I.C., J.T.A., and S.H.B. Methods were developed by all authors. Analysis was carried out by A.P.W., J.T.A., K.B., and A.M.B. The original manuscript was written by A.P.W., and all authors edited subsequent drafts. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Data and materials availability: The observed and reconstructed climate and drought data are available at (45). LDEO contribution number is 8392.

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A. Park Williams* https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8176-8166 [email protected]
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
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Edward R. Cook
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
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Jason E. Smerdon https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6276-0249
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
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Benjamin I. Cook
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
NASA Goddard Institute of Space Studies, New York, NY 10025, USA.
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John T. Abatzoglou https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7599-9750
Department of Geography, University of Idaho, Moscow, ID 83844, USA.
Management of Complex Systems Department, UC Merced, Merced, CA 95343, USA.
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Kasey Bolles https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7547-6730
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
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Seung H. Baek https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8369-3081
Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory of Columbia University, Palisades, NY 10964, USA.
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
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Andrew M. Badger https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4537-9993
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80302, USA.
Universities Space Research Association, Columbia, MD 21046, USA.
NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA 20771, USA.
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Ben Livneh https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5445-2473
Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80302, USA.
Civil, Environmental, and Architectural Engineering, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
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Notes

*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

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