Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change
The time is now
For decades, scientists have been raising calls for societal changes that will reduce our impacts on nature. Though much conservation has occurred, our natural environment continues to decline under the weight of our consumption. Humanity depends directly on the output of nature; thus, this decline will affect us, just as it does the other species with which we share this world. Díaz et al. review the findings of the largest assessment of the state of nature conducted as of yet. They report that the state of nature, and the state of the equitable distribution of nature's support, is in serious decline. Only immediate transformation of global business-as-usual economies and operations will sustain nature as we know it, and us, into the future.
Science, this issue p. eaax3100
Structured Abstract
BACKGROUND
Human actions have long been known to drive declines in nature, and there is growing awareness of how globalization means that these drivers increasingly act at a distance (telecoupling). However, evidence from different disciplines has largely accumulated in parallel, and the global effects of telecouplings have never been addressed comprehensively. Now, the first integrated global-scale intergovernmental assessment of the status, trends, and future of the links between people and nature provides an unprecedented picture of the extent of our mutual dependence, the breadth and depth of the ongoing and impending crisis, and the interconnectedness among sectors and regions.
ADVANCES
Human impacts on life on Earth have increased sharply since the 1970s. The world is increasingly managed to maximize the flow of material contributions from nature to keep up with rising demands for food, energy, timber, and more, with global trade increasing the geographic separation between supply and demand. This unparalleled appropriation of nature is causing the fabric of life on which humanity depends to fray and unravel: Most indicators of the state of nature, whether monitored by natural and social scientists or by Indigenous Peoples and local communities, are declining. These include the number and population size of wild species, the number of local varieties of domesticated species, the distinctness of ecological communities, and the extent and integrity of many terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. As a consequence, nature’s capacity to provide crucial benefits has also declined, including environmental processes underpinning human health and nonmaterial contributions to human quality of life. The costs are distributed unequally, as are the benefits of an expanding global economy.
These trends in nature and its contributions to people are projected to worsen in the coming decades—unevenly so among different regions—unless rapid and integrated action is taken to reduce the direct drivers responsible for most change over the past 50 years: land and sea use change, direct harvesting of many plants and animals, climate change (whose impacts are set to accelerate), pollution, and the spread of invasive alien species. Exploratory scenarios suggest that a world with increased regional barriers—resonating with recent geopolitical trends—will yield more negative global trends in nature, as well as the greatest disparity in trends across regions, greater than a world with liberal financial markets, and much greater than one that prioritizes and integrates actions toward sustainable development. Evidence from target-seeking scenarios and pathways indicates that a world that achieves many of the global biodiversity targets and sustainability goals related to food, energy, climate, and water is not—yet—beyond reach, but that no single action can get us there.
OUTLOOK
Our comprehensive assessment of status, trends, and possible futures for nature and people suggests that action at the level of direct drivers of nature decline, although necessary, is not sufficient to prevent further deterioration of the fabric of life on Earth. Reversal of recent declines—and a sustainable global future—are only possible with urgent transformative change that tackles the root causes: the interconnected economic, sociocultural, demographic, political, institutional, and technological indirect drivers behind the direct drivers. As well as a pan-sectoral approach to conserving and restoring the nature that underpins many goals, this transformation will need innovative governance approaches that are adaptive; inclusive; informed by existing and new evidence; and integrative across systems, jurisdictions, and tools. Although the challenge is formidable, every delay will make the task even harder. Crucially, our analysis pinpoints five priority interventions (“levers”) and eight leverage points for intervention in the indirect drivers of global social and economic systems where they can make the biggest difference.
Traditional diversity-rich human landscapes, and the livelihoods and identities that depend on them, face global threats.
Mosaics of crops, forest, and pasture have been maintained for millennia around the world. Now, they are under increasing threat from climate change and large-scale land use change to accommodate global demands for commodities. So are the livelihoods and cultural identity of the peoples that live in them, such as this woman collecting fodder for her flock in the Checacupe district, Perú.
Photo credit www.estebantapella.com
Abstract
The human impact on life on Earth has increased sharply since the 1970s, driven by the demands of a growing population with rising average per capita income. Nature is currently supplying more materials than ever before, but this has come at the high cost of unprecedented global declines in the extent and integrity of ecosystems, distinctness of local ecological communities, abundance and number of wild species, and the number of local domesticated varieties. Such changes reduce vital benefits that people receive from nature and threaten the quality of life of future generations. Both the benefits of an expanding economy and the costs of reducing nature’s benefits are unequally distributed. The fabric of life on which we all depend—nature and its contributions to people—is unravelling rapidly. Despite the severity of the threats and lack of enough progress in tackling them to date, opportunities exist to change future trajectories through transformative action. Such action must begin immediately, however, and address the root economic, social, and technological causes of nature’s deterioration.
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Supplementary Material
Summary
Table S1
Resources
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References and Notes
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Volume 366 | Issue 6471
13 December 2019
13 December 2019
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Copyright © 2019 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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Received: 22 August 2019
Accepted: 11 November 2019
Published in print: 13 December 2019
Acknowledgments
We thank the reviewers who provided thoughtful and constructive feedback on this manuscript, which resulted in considerable improvement to the manuscript. We are grateful to the IPBES (Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services) Global Assessment Management Committee, review editors and numerous contributing authors, to the IPBES Secretariat and its Technical Support Units, and all the governments and organizations that supported author meetings. We are especially grateful to A. Larigauderie (IPBES executive secretary) and R. T. Watson (IPBES chair 2016–2019), for their strategic vision and continued advice, and to I. Baste (IPBES Bureau) and M. Stenseke, S. Demissew, and L. Dziba (MEP co-chairs) for their continued advice. We also acknowledge the contributions of D. Cooper, M. Guèze (GA Technical Support Unit); Y. O. Estrada (data visualization); and R. González, S. Hill, C. Hilton-Taylor, and M. Rivers (data and discussions for this paper). Funding: The authors received no specific funding for this work; all authors involved in IPBES assessments and deliverables are involved on a voluntary basis. The IPBES global assessment was made possible thanks to many generous contributions, including nonearmarked contributions to the IPBES trust fund from governments (Australia, Belgium, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Denmark, Estonia, European Union, Finland, France, Germany, India, Japan, Latvia, Luxembourg, Malaysia, Monaco, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Republic of Korea, South Africa, Sweden, Switzerland, the United Kingdom, and the United States); earmarked contributions to the IPBES trust fund toward the global assessment [Germany, Canada, France (Agence Française pour la Biodiversité), Norway, the United Kingdom, and the United States]; and in-kind contributions targeted at the global assessment. All donors are listed on the IPBES web site: www.ipbes.net/donors. Author contributions: All authors volunteered and contributed their time in producing this publication and components of the underlying assessment report (5, 8, 51, 69, 83, 95, 106, 114) and its summary for policymakers (1). We are grateful to the following lead authors, fellows, and chapter scientists of the IPBES Global Assessment: C. Adams, A. P. D. Aguiar, D. Armenteras, Y. Aumeeruddy-Thomas, X. Bai, L. Balint, Z. Basher, T. Bekele Gode, E. Bennett, Y. A. Boafo, A. K. Boedhihartono, P. Brancalion, E. Bukvareva, I. Chan, N. Chettri, W. L. Cheung, B. Czúcz, F. DeClerck, E. Dulloo, A. Fernandez-Llamazares, B. Gabrielyan, L. Galetto, K. Galvin, E. García Frapolli, A. P. Gautam, L. R. Gerber, A. Geschke, J. Gutt, S. Hashimoto, A. Heinimann, A. Hendry, G. C. Hernández Pedraza, T. Hickler, A. I. Horcea-Milcu, S. A. Hussain, M. Islar, U. Jacob, W. Jetz, J. Jetzkowitz, P. Jaureguiberry, M. S. Karim, E. Kelemen, E. Keskin, P. Kindlmann, M. Kok, M. Kolb, Z. Krenova, R. Krug, P. Leadley, M. Lim, J. Liu, G. Lui, A. J. Lynch, M. Mastrangelo, P. McElwee, L. Merino, P. A. Minang, A. Mohamed, A. Mohammed, I. B. Mphangwe Kosamu, E. Mungatana, R. Muradian, M. Murray-Hudson, T. H. Mwampamba, N. Nagabhatla, A. Niamir, N. Nkongolo, P. O’Farrell, T. Oberdorff, P. Osano, B. Öztürk, H. Palang, M. G. Palomo, I. Palomo, M. Panahi, U. Pascual, R. Pichs Madruga, P. Pliscoff, V. Reyes-García, C. Rondinini, G. M. Rusch, O. Saito, R. Salimov, J. A. Samakov, J. Sathyapalan, T. Satterfield, A. K. Saysel, E. R. Selig, O. Selomane, R. Seppelt, L. Shannon, A. U. B. Shrestha, A. Sidorovich, A. Simcock, G. S. Singh, B., J. Spangenberg, B. Strassburg, E. Strombom, D. Tarkhnishvili, N. Titeux, E. Turnhout, M. Verma, A. Viña, M. Wiemers, M. J. Williams H. Xu, D. Xue, T. Yue, and D. Zaleski. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Data and materials availability: All data are available in the manuscript or the supplementary materials.
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RE: Be the change that you wish to see in the world.
According to Liao, Jung, Brown and Agrawal (2016) "A deeper understanding of land transaction outcomes requires studies that are more representative of the range of transactions. More systematic attention to case selection and causal effects of tenure changes is necessary to address research limitations. Improved representation will also enable more robust estimates of social, economic, and ecological effects of transactions"
What is there to understand? Economy-of-scale and proximity-of-demand, subject to asymmetric negotiation and the tragedy of governance, characterize land transactions. Constitutional takings and confiscation.
According to Parlee, Sandlos and Natcher (2018), the literature on Indigenous subsistence describes rules of stewardship in stark contrast to large-scale commercial land-use; and the literature on food security describes innovative sharing networks that adapt to resource variability.
How do you measure success of adaptation and mitigation to pervasive human-driven decline of life? Constitutional takings and confiscation.
"[Restore] the fabric of life that supports us all ... [that] vast area of the world managed by Indigenous Peoples under various property regimes is no exception to these trends. Because of their large extent, the fact that nature is overall better preserved within them, and because of the diverse stewardship practices carried within them around the world, the fate of nature in these lands has important consequences for wider society as well as for local livelihoods, health, and knowledge transmission" (Díaz, et al., 2019).
First rule of stewardship is be the transformative change you seek. "People who didn't care so much would not notice the changes" (Parlee, Sandlos and Natcher citing Parlee, B., Manseau, M. & Łutsël K'é Dene First Nation, 2005).
References
Díaz, et al. (2019). Pervasive human-driven decline of life on Earth points to the need for transformative change. Science, Vol. 366, Issue 6471, eaax3100. doi: 10.1126/science.aax3100. Retrieved from https://science.sciencemag.org/content/366/6471/eaax3100.
Liao, Jung, Brown & Agrawal. (2016). Insufficient research on land grabbing. Science, Vol. 353, Issue 6295, pp. 131. doi: 10.1126/science.aaf6565. Retrieved from https://science.sciencemag.org/content/353/6295/131.2.
Parlee, B., Manseau, M. & Łutsël K'é Dene First Nation. (2005). Understanding and communicating about ecological change: Denesoline indicators of ecosystem health, In F. Berkes, R. Huebert, H. Fast, M. Manseau, & A. Diduck, (Eds.) Breaking Ice: Integrated Ocean Management in the Canadian North (pp. 165-182). University of Calgary Press.
Parlee, Sandlos and Natcher. (2018). Undermining subsistence: Barren-ground caribou in a "tragedy of open access". Science, Vol. 4, no. 2, e1701611. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1701611. Retrieved from https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/4/2/e1701611.