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Old carbon reservoirs were not important in the deglacial methane budget

M. N. Dyonisius https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8412-6724 [email protected], V. V. Petrenko https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0263-8759, A. M. Smith, Q. Hua https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0179-8539, B. Yang, J. Schmitt https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4695-3029, J. Beck https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2561-5074, B. Seth https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2262-6963, M. Bock https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5744-3169, B. Hmiel https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5289-7492, I. Vimont https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0740-4927, J. A. Menking https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5891-6711, S. A. Shackleton, D. Baggenstos https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9756-6884, T. K. Bauska https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1901-0367, R. H. Rhodes https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7511-1969, P. Sperlich https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1455-0903, R. Beaudette, C. Harth, M. Kalk https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1681-2658, E. J. Brook https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5438-0115, H. Fischer, J. P. Severinghaus, and R. F. Weiss https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9551-7739
Science • 21 Feb 2020 • Vol 367, Issue 6480 • pp. 907-910 • DOI: 10.1126/science.aax0504
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Small burden from old sources

Methane is a potent greenhouse gas with large natural sources, reservoirs, and sinks. Dyonisius et al. found that methane emissions from old, cold-region carbon reservoirs like permafrost and methane hydrates were minor during the last deglaciation (see the Perspective by Dean). They analyzed the carbon isotopic composition of atmospheric methane trapped in bubbles in Antarctic ice and found that methane emissions from those old carbon sources during the warming interval were small. They argue that this finding suggests that methane emissions in response to future warming likely will not be as large as some have suggested.
Science, this issue p. 907; see also p. 846

Abstract

Permafrost and methane hydrates are large, climate-sensitive old carbon reservoirs that have the potential to emit large quantities of methane, a potent greenhouse gas, as the Earth continues to warm. We present ice core isotopic measurements of methane (Δ14C, δ13C, and δD) from the last deglaciation, which is a partial analog for modern warming. Our results show that methane emissions from old carbon reservoirs in response to deglacial warming were small (<19 teragrams of methane per year, 95% confidence interval) and argue against similar methane emissions in response to future warming. Our results also indicate that methane emissions from biomass burning in the pre-Industrial Holocene were 22 to 56 teragrams of methane per year (95% confidence interval), which is comparable to today.
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Materials and Methods
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Tables S1 to S11
References (41–97)

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References and Notes

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Volume 367 | Issue 6480
21 February 2020

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Copyright © 2020 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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Received: 19 February 2019
Accepted: 6 January 2020
Published in print: 21 February 2020

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Acknowledgments

We thank M. Jayred and J. Jetson for ice drilling; camp managers K. Schroeder and C. Llewelyn and field team members A. Palardy and J. Ward for assistance; the U.S. Antarctic Program for logistical support; M. Sigl and F. Adolphi for assistance with age-scale transfer between IntCal13 and WD2014; H. Schaefer for suggestions regarding the isotope box model; G. Mollenhauer for discussions regarding the 14C-age of terrigenous biomarkers; and P. F. Place Jr., M. Diaz, and M. Paccico for help with field gear preparations. Funding: This work was supported by NSF awards PLR-1245659 (V.V.P.), PLR-1245821 (E.J.B), and PLR-1246148 (J.P.S.); the Packard Fellowship for Science and Engineering (V.V.P.); the European Research Council (ERC) under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme FP7/2007-2013 ERC Grant 226172 [ERC Advanced Grant Modern Approaches to Temperature Reconstructions in Polar Ice Cores (MATRICs); H.F.]; the Swiss National Science Foundation 200020_172506 (H.F.); Australian Government for the Centre for Accelerator Science at ANSTO through the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (A.M.S, Q.H., B.Y.); and the National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research through the Greenhouse Gases, Emissions and Carbon Cycle Science Program (P.S.). Author contributions: V.V.P., E.J.B., and J.P.S. designed the study. M.N.D., V.V.P., and B.H. conducted field logistical preparations. M.N.D., V.V.P., J.A.M., S.A.S., B.H., I.V., D.B., T.K.B., P.S., E.J.B., J.P.S., and R.H.R. conducted the field sampling and reconnaissance. M.N.D. extracted CH4 and CO from air samples. Q.H. and B.Y. graphitized the 14C samples. A.M.S. conducted the 14C measurements. J.B. and B.S. made the CH4 stable isotopes measurements (δ13C and δD-CH4) under the supervision of J.S., M.B., and H.F. D.B. and J.P.S. made the Xe/Kr, Kr/N2, and Xe/N2 measurements. R.B. made the δ15N2, δ18Oatm, 40Ar/36Ar, O2/N2, and Ar/N2 measurements. C.H. made the CH4 mole fraction and halogenated trace gas measurements under the supervision of R.F.W. M.K. made the CH4 mole fraction and total air content measurements on the ice samples under the supervision of E.J.B. I.V. made the δ13CO measurement for the CO dilution gas. S.A.S and M.N.D. developed the age scale for the samples. M.N.D. and V.V.P. analyzed the results and wrote the manuscript with input from all authors. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Data and materials availability: Data from this work are available through the USAP Data Center: https://gcmd.nasa.gov/search/Metadata.do?entry=USAP-1245659.

Authors

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M. N. Dyonisius* https://orcid.org/0000-0001-8412-6724 [email protected]
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA.
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V. V. Petrenko https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0263-8759
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA.
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A. M. Smith
Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW 2234, Australia.
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Q. Hua https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0179-8539
Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW 2234, Australia.
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B. Yang
Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), Lucas Heights, NSW 2234, Australia.
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J. Schmitt https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4695-3029
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.
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J. Beck https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2561-5074
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.
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B. Seth https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2262-6963
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.
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M. Bock https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5744-3169
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.
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B. Hmiel https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5289-7492
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Rochester, Rochester, NY 14627, USA.
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I. Vimont https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0740-4927
Institute of Arctic and Alpine Research, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO 80303, USA.
Present address: Cooperative Institute for Research in Earth Sciences, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309, USA.
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J. A. Menking https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5891-6711
College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
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S. A. Shackleton
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA.
Present address: Department of Geosciences, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA.
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D. Baggenstos https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9756-6884
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA.
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T. K. Bauska https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1901-0367
College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
British Antarctic Survey High Cross, Cambridge CB3 0ET, UK.
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R. H. Rhodes https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7511-1969
College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Cambridge, Cambridge CB2 3EQ, UK.
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P. Sperlich https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1455-0903
National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA), 6021 Wellington, New Zealand.
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R. Beaudette
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA.
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C. Harth
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA.
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M. Kalk https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1681-2658
College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
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E. J. Brook https://orcid.org/0000-0001-5438-0115
College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
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H. Fischer
Climate and Environmental Physics, Physics Institute and Oeschger Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Bern, CH-3012 Bern, Switzerland.
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J. P. Severinghaus
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA.
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R. F. Weiss https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9551-7739
Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO), University of California, San Diego, La Jolla, CA 92037, USA.
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Funding Information

Notes

*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

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