Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Transform global energy
Abstract
Solar energy has the potential to play a central role in the future global energy system because of the scale of the solar resource, its predictability, and its ubiquitous nature. Global installed solar photovoltaic (PV) capacity exceeded 500 GW at the end of 2018, and an estimated additional 500 GW of PV capacity is projected to be installed by 2022–2023, bringing us into the era of TW-scale PV. Given the speed of change in the PV industry, both in terms of continued dramatic cost decreases and manufacturing-scale increases, the growth toward TW-scale PV has caught many observers, including many of us (1), by surprise. Two years ago, we focused on the challenges of achieving 3 to 10 TW of PV by 2030. Here, we envision a future with ∼10 TW of PV by 2030 and 30 to 70 TW by 2050, providing a majority of global energy. PV would be not just a key contributor to electricity generation but also a central contributor to all segments of the global energy system. We discuss ramifications and challenges for complementary technologies (e.g., energy storage, power to gas/liquid fuels/chemicals, grid integration, and multiple sector electrification) and summarize what is needed in research in PV performance, reliability, manufacturing, and recycling.
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Supplementary Material
File (aaw1845-haegel-sm.pdf)
References and Notes
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Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Science
Volume 364 • Issue 6443 • 31 May 2019
Pages: 836 - 838
Copyright
Copyright © 2019, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
This is an article distributed under the terms of the Science Journals Default License.
RE: Terawatt-scale photovoltaics: Transform global energy
IEA Key world energy statistics 2017, World TPES:
1973 = 6101 Mtoe, 2015 = 13647 Mtote, 1.0 Mtoe = 0.04187 EJt
Assume:
1973 World Energy =
(8.5 EJt/a + 4.5 EJt/a * Exp(0.0225/a * (1973 - 1800)))/0.04187 EJt/Mtoe
= 5473 Mtoe/a
2015 World Energy =
(8.5 EJt/a + 4.5 EJt/a * Exp(0.0225/a * (2015 - 1800)))/0.04187 EJt/Mtoe
= 13761 Mtoe/a
2020 World Energy =
(8.5 EJt/a + 4.5 EJt/a * Exp(0.0225/a * (2020 - 1800)))/3.6 EJt/PWh = 178 PWh/a
2050 World Energy =
(8.5 EJt/a + 4.5 EJt/a * Exp(0.0225/a * (2050 - 1800)))/3.6 EJt/PWh = 349 PWh/a
ppmCO2 = 280 preindustrial + Exp(0.0225 * (a - 1800)) --> 2020 = 421 ppm
Both global energy consumption and atmospheric CO2 seem to continue increasing 2.25%/a, as has been true since 1800.
The stated global PV yield of 1370 kWh/kWp represents a 0.156 utilization. If we assume half the energy is lost in storage and transmission, effective utilization would be 0.08. Allowing for equipment unavailability and powerplants on the wrong continents, effective utilization would be 0.06.
Solar PV nameplate in 2050 would be:
((349 PWh/a/8766 h/a)/0.06 utilization) * 1000 TW/PW
* 1 W-electric/3 W-thermal = 221 TW-nameplate-electric
Unlikely utility-scale installed cost, including land and powelines will be less than 2 USD/W, so 221 TW-nameplate PV will cost 442 Trillion USD.
All PV power will have to be able to go to storage in order to prevent much lower utilization. If we assume three days full power at 12 hours per day, each nameplate watt will have to have available 36 watt-hours storage. At 0.15 USD per watt-hour, storage cost is:
221 TW-nameplate * 36 hour storage * 0.15 USD/Wh = 1193 trillion USD.
Untested NH3-H2O storage may drop this in half, but presently is only compatible with CSP that costs more than PV. To mitigate CO2 essentially all energy sources must be replaced with zero CO2 emission power. Unlikely 2050 CO2 can be mitigated by using solar PV for less than 2000 Trillion USD. The good news is that electrolysis/fuel-cell storage will liberate D2O for atomic power plants.