Dominant effect of relative tropical Atlantic warming on major hurricane occurrence
Warm water and big winds
The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season was highly active, with six major storms—nearly two standard deviations above the normal number. Three of those storms made landfall over the Gulf Coast and the Caribbean, causing terrible damage and loss. Why was the season so fierce? Murakami et al. used a suite of high-resolution model experiments to show that the main cause was pronounced warm sea surface conditions in the tropical North Atlantic. This effect was distinct from La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean that were involved in other years. It remains unclear how important anthropogenic forcing may be in causing such increased hurricane activity.
Science, this issue p. 794
Abstract
Here we explore factors potentially linked to the enhanced major hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean during 2017. Using a suite of high-resolution model experiments, we show that the increase in 2017 major hurricanes was not primarily caused by La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean but rather triggered mainly by pronounced warm sea surface conditions in the tropical North Atlantic. Further, we superimpose a similar pattern of North Atlantic surface warming on data for long-term increasing sea surface temperature (a product of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and decreases in aerosols) to show that this warming trend will likely lead to even higher numbers of major hurricanes in the future. The key factor controlling Atlantic major hurricane activity appears to be the degree to which the tropical Atlantic warms relative to the rest of the global ocean.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Already a Subscriber?Sign In
Supplementary Material
Summary
Materials and Methods
Figs. S1 to S8
Tables S1 and S2
Resources
File (aat6711_murakami_sm.pdf)
References and Notes
1
A. J. Willingham, “A look at four storms from one brutal hurricane season” (2017); www.cnn.com/2017/10/10/weather/hurricane-nate-maria-irma-harvey-impact-look-back-trnd/index.html.
2
K. Emanuel, Assessing the present and future probability of Hurricane Harvey’s rainfall. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. U.S.A. 114, 12681–12684 (2017).
3
T. Hall, K. Hereid, The frequency and duration of U.S. hurricane droughts. Geophys. Res. Lett. 42, 3482–3485 (2015).
4
B. E. Hart, D. R. Chavas, M. P. Guishard, The arbitrary definition of the current Atlantic major hurricane landfall drought. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 97, 713–722 (2016).
5
E. Shuckburgh, D. Mitchell, P. Stott, Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria: How natural were these ‘natural disasters’? Weather 72, 353–354 (2017).
6
B. Resnick, “Hurricane season 2017: What the hell just happened?” (2017); www.vox.com/energy-and-environment/2017/10/25/16504488/hurricane-season-2017-what-the-hell.
7
S. B. Goldenberg, L. J. Shapiro, Physical mechanisms for the association of El Niño and west African rainfall with Atlantic major hurricane activity. J. Clim. 9, 1169–1187 (1996).
8
D. M. Smith, R. Eade, N. J. Dunstone, D. Fereday, J. M. Murphy, H. Pohlmann, A. A. Scaife, Skilful multi-year predictions of Atlantic hurricane frequency. Nat. Geosci. 3, 846–849 (2010).
9
J. P. Kossin, Hurricane intensification along United States coast suppressed during active hurricane periods. Nature 541, 390–393 (2017).
10
M. DeMaria, The effect of vertical shear on tropical cyclone intensity change. J. Atmos. Sci. 53, 2076–2088 (1996).
11
R. L. Elsberry, R. A. Jeffries, Vertical wind shear influences on tropical cyclone formation and intensification during TCM-92 and TCM-93. Mon. Weather Rev. 124, 1374–1387 (1996).
12
M. L. M. Wong, J. C. L. Chan, Tropical cyclone intensity in vertical wind shear. J. Atmos. Sci. 61, 1859–1876 (2004).
13
T. L. Delworth, M. E. Mann, Observed and simulated multidecadal variability in the Northern Hemisphere. Clim. Dyn. 16, 661–676 (2000).
14
D. J. Vimont, J. P. Kossin, The Atlantic meridional mode and hurricane activity. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L07709 (2007).
15
X. Yan, R. Zhang, T. R. Knutson, The role of Atlantic overturning circulation in the recent decline of Atlantic major hurricane frequency. Nat. Commun. 8, 1695 (2017).
16
T. R. Knutson, J. L. McBride, J. Chan, K. Emanuel, G. Holland, C. Landsea, I. Held, J. P. Kossin, A. K. Srivastava, M. Sugi, Tropical cyclones and climate change. Nat. Geosci. 3, 157–163 (2010).
17
H. Murakami, Y. Wang, H. Yoshimura, R. Mizuta, M. Sugi, E. Shindo, Y. Adachi, S. Yukimoto, M. Hosaka, S. Kusunoki, T. Ose, A. Kitoh, Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by the new high-resolution MRI-AGCM. J. Clim. 25, 3237–3260 (2012).
18
T. R. Knutson, J. J. Sirutis, M. Zhao, R. E. Tuleya, M. Bender, G. A. Vecchi, G. Villarini, D. Chavas, Global projections of intense tropical cyclone activity for the late twenty-first century from dynamical downscaling of CMIP5/RCP4.5 Scenarios. J. Clim. 28, 7203–7224 (2015).
19
H. Murakami, G. A. Vecchi, S. Underwood, T. L. Delworth, A. T. Wittenberg, W. G. Anderson, J.-H. Chen, R. G. Gudgel, L. M. Harris, S.-J. Lin, F. Zeng, Simulation and prediction of Category 4 and 5 hurricanes in the high-resolution GFDL HiFLOR coupled climate model. J. Clim. 28, 9058–9079 (2015).
20
H. Murakami, G. A. Vecchi, G. Villarini, T. L. Delworth, R. Gudgel, S. Underwood, X. Yang, W. Zhang, S.-J. Lin, Seasonal forecasts of major hurricanes and landfalling tropical cyclones using a high-resolution GFDL coupled climate model. J. Clim. 29, 7977–7989 (2016).
21
E. D. Maloney, D. L. Hartmann, Modulation of hurricane activity in the gulf of mexico by the madden-julian oscillation. Science 287, 2002–2004 (2000).
22
P. J. Klotzbach, On the Madden-Julian oscillation–Atlantic hurricane relationship. J. Clim. 23, 282–293 (2010).
23
North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME), NMME relative forecast archive, Season 2 tmpsfc forecast; www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME/archive/2017040800/current/tmpsfc_Seas2.html.
24
W. Duan, C. Wei, The ‘spring predictability barrier’ for ENSO predictions and its possible mechanism: Results from a fully coupled model. Int. J. Climatol. 33, 1280–1292 (2013).
25
N. J. Dunstone, D. M. Smith, B. B. B. Booth, L. Hermanson, R. Eade, Anthropogenic aerosol forcing of Atlantic tropical storms. Nat. Geosci. 6, 534–539 (2013).
26
M. Ting, S. J. Camargo, C. Li, Y. Kushnir, Natural and forced North Atlantic hurricane potential intensity change in CMIP5 models. J. Clim. 28, 3926–3942 (2015).
27
A. H. Sobel, S. J. Camargo, T. M. Hall, C.-Y. Lee, M. K. Tippett, A. A. Wing, Human influence on tropical cyclone intensity. Science 353, 242–246 (2016).
28
H. Murakami, G. A. Vecchi, S. Underwood, Increasing frequency of extremely severe cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea. Nat. Clim. Chang. 7, 885–889 (2017).
29
G. A. Vecchi, B. J. Soden, Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity. Nature 450, 1066–1070 (2007).
30
G. A. Vecchi, R. Msadek, W. Anderson, Y.-S. Chang, T. Delworth, K. Dixon, R. Gudgel, A. Rosati, B. Stern, G. Villarini, A. Wittenberg, X. Yang, F. Zeng, R. Zhang, S. Zhang, Multiyear predictions of North Atlantic hurricane frequency: Promise and limitations. J. Clim. 26, 5337–5357 (2013).
31
W. Zhang, G. A. Vecchi, H. Murakami, T. Delworth, A. T. Wittenberg, A. Rosati, S. Underwood, W. Anderson, L. Harris, R. Gudgel, S.-J. Lin, G. Villarini, J.-H. Chen, Improved simulation of tropical cyclone responses to ENSO in the western North Pacific in the high-resolution GFDL HiFLOR Coupled Climate Model. J. Clim. 29, 1391–1415 (2016).
32
H. Murakami, B. Wang, T. Li, A. Kitoh, Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii. Nat. Clim. Chang. 3, 749–754 (2013).
33
J.-H. Chu, C. R. Sampson, A. S. Levin, E. Fukada, “The Joint Typhoon Warning Center tropical cyclone best tracks 1945–2000” (Joint Typhoon Warning Center Rep., 2002); www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks/TC_bt_report.html.
34
K. R. Knapp, M. C. Kruk, D. H. Levinson, H. J. Diamond, C. J. Neumann, The international best track archive for climate stewardship (IBTrACS): Unifying tropical cyclone best track data. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc. 91, 363–376 (2010).
35
Tropical Cyclone Guidance Project Global Repository, http://hurricanes.ral.ucar.edu/repository/.
36
N. A. Rayner, D. E. Parker, E. B. Horton, C. K. Folland, L. V. Alexander, D. P. Rowell, Global analysis of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century. J. Geophys. Res. 108, 4407 (2003).
37
B. Huang, P. W. Thorne, V. F. Banzon, T. Boyer, G. Chepurin, J. H. Lawrimore, M. J. Menne, T. M. Smith, R. S. Vose, H.-M. Zhang, coauthors. Extended Reconstructed Sea Surface Temperature version 5 (ERSSTv5), Upgrades, validations, and intercomparisons. J. Clim. 30, 8179–8205 (2017).
38
M. Ishii, A. Shouji, S. Sugimoto, T. Matsumoto, Objective analyses of sea-surface temperature and marine meteorological variables for the 20th century using ICOADS and the Kobe collection. Int. J. Climatol. 25, 865–879 (2005).
39
H. Murakami, G. A. Vecchi, T. L. Delworth, A. T. Wittenberg, S. Underwood, R. Gudgel, X. Yang, L. Jia, F. Zeng, K. Paffendorf, W. Zhang, Dominant role of subtropical Pacific warming in extreme eastern Pacific hurricane seasons: 2015 and the future. J. Clim. 30, 243–264 (2017).
40
L. Jia, X. Yang, G. A. Vecchi, R. G. Gudgel, T. L. Delworth, A. Rosati, W. F. Stern, A. T. Wittenberg, L. Krishnamurthy, S. Zhang, R. Msadek, S. Kapnick, S. Underwood, F. Zeng, W. G. Anderson, V. Balaji, K. Dixon, Improved seasonal prediction of temperature and precipitation over land in a high-resolution GFDL climate model. J. Clim. 28, 2044–2062 (2015).
41
L. M. Harris, S.-J. Lin, C. Y. Tu, High resolution climate simulations using GFDL HiRAM with a stretched global grid. J. Clim. 29, 4293–4314 (2016).
42
S. Kobayashi, Y. Ota, Y. Harada, A. Ebita, M. Moriya, H. Onoda, K. Onogi, H. Kamahori, C. Kobayashi, H. Endo, K. Miyaoka, K. Takahashi, The JRA-55 reanalysis: General specifications and basic characteristics. J. Meteorol. Soc. Jpn. 93, 5–48 (2015).
43
R. Gelaro, W. McCarty, M. J. Suárez, R. Todling, A. Molod, L. Takacs, C. A. Randles, A. Darmenov, M. G. Bosilovich, R. Reichle, K. Wargan, L. Coy, R. Cullather, C. Draper, S. Akella, V. Buchard, A. Conaty, A. M. da Silva, W. Gu, G.-K. Kim, R. Koster, R. Lucchesi, D. Merkova, J. E. Nielsen, G. Partyka, S. Pawson, W. Putman, M. Rienecker, S. D. Schubert, M. Sienkiewicz, B. Zhao, The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, Version 2 (MERRA-2). J. Clim. 30, 5419–5454 (2017).
44
D. P. Dee, S. M. Uppala, A. J. Simmons, P. Berrisford, P. Poli, S. Kobayashi, U. Andrae, M. A. Balmaseda, G. Balsamo, P. Bauer, P. Bechtold, A. C. M. Beljaars, L. van de Berg, J. Bidlot, N. Bormann, C. Delsol, R. Dragani, M. Fuentes, A. J. Geer, L. Haimberger, S. B. Healy, H. Hersbach, E. V. Hólm, L. Isaksen, P. Kållberg, M. Köhler, M. Matricardi, A. P. McNally, B. M. Monge-Sanz, J.-J. Morcrette, B.-K. Park, C. Peubey, P. de Rosnay, C. Tavolato, J.-N. Thépaut, F. Vitart, The ERA-Interim reanalysis: Configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q. J. R. Meteorol. Soc. 137, 553–597 (2011).
Information & Authors
Information
Published In

Science
Volume 362 | Issue 6416
16 November 2018
16 November 2018
Copyright
Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
This is an article distributed under the terms of the Science Journals Default License.
Article versions
You are viewing the most recent version of this article.
Submission history
Received: 22 March 2018
Accepted: 14 September 2018
Published in print: 16 November 2018
Acknowledgments
We thank X. Yan, M. Bushuk, K. Gao, and two anonymous reviewers for suggestions and comments. Funding: H.M. prepared this report under awards NA14OAR4320106 (the Cooperative Institute for Climate Science) and NA14OAR4830101 (the Sandy Supplemental) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or the U.S. Department of Commerce. Author contributions: H.M. designed the study, carried out the experiments, analyzed the results, and wrote the manuscript. R.G. carried out the retrospective and real-time seasonal forecasts. E.L analyzed the observed MH frequency and climate indices. R.G., T.L.D and P.-C.H. discussed the results with H.M. and made comments on the manuscript. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Data and materials availability: The source code of the climate model can be accessed at www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cm2-5-and-flor/. The predicted tropical cyclone tracks through the idealized experiments are available online at ftp://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/users/Hiroyuki.Murakami/GFDL-HiFLOR/2017MH/.
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Article Usage
Altmetrics
Citations
Export citation
Select the format you want to export the citation of this publication.
Cited by
- Phenology and breeding ecology of Common Terns (Sterna hirundo) in Bermuda: An ecologically distinctive island population, now critically endangered, The Wilson Journal of Ornithology, 132, 2, (2021).https://doi.org/10.1676/1559-4491-132.2.271
- Sediment Mobilization by Hurricane‐Driven Shallow Landsliding in a Wet Subtropical Watershed, Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 126, 5, (2021).https://doi.org/10.1029/2020JF006054
- Large sharks exhibit varying behavioral responses to major hurricanes, Estuarine, Coastal and Shelf Science, 256, (107373), (2021).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecss.2021.107373
- Different impacts of spring tropical Atlantic SST anomalies on Eurasia spring climate during the periods of 1970–1995 and 1996–2018, Atmospheric Research, 253, (105494), (2021).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105494
- Changes in Atlantic major hurricane frequency since the late-19th century, Nature Communications, 12, 1, (2021).https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-24268-5
- Extending energy system modelling to include extreme weather risks and application to hurricane events in Puerto Rico, Nature Energy, 6, 3, (240-249), (2021).https://doi.org/10.1038/s41560-020-00758-6
- A 1600 year-long sedimentary record of tsunamis and hurricanes in the Lesser Antilles (Scrub Island, Anguilla), Sedimentary Geology, 412, (105806), (2021).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sedgeo.2020.105806
- Greenhouse warming intensifies north tropical Atlantic climate variability, Science Advances, 7, 35, (2021)./doi/10.1126/sciadv.abg9690
- Effects of sea surface warming and sea-level rise on tropical cyclone and inundation modeling at Shanghai coast, Natural Hazards, (2021).https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-021-04856-w
- Tropical cyclone motion in a changing climate, Science Advances, 6, 17, (2020)./doi/10.1126/sciadv.aaz7610
- See more
Loading...
View Options
Get Access
Log in to view the full text
AAAS login provides access to Science for AAAS Members, and access to other journals in the Science family to users who have purchased individual subscriptions.
- Become a AAAS Member
- Activate your AAAS ID
- Purchase Access to Other Journals in the Science Family
- Account Help
Log in via OpenAthens.
Log in via Shibboleth.
More options
Register for free to read this article
As a service to the community, this article is available for free. Login or register for free to read this article.
Buy a single issue of Science for just $15 USD.
View options
PDF format
Download this article as a PDF file
Download PDF





