Dominant effect of relative tropical Atlantic warming on major hurricane occurrence
Warm water and big winds
The 2017 North Atlantic hurricane season was highly active, with six major storms—nearly two standard deviations above the normal number. Three of those storms made landfall over the Gulf Coast and the Caribbean, causing terrible damage and loss. Why was the season so fierce? Murakami et al. used a suite of high-resolution model experiments to show that the main cause was pronounced warm sea surface conditions in the tropical North Atlantic. This effect was distinct from La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean that were involved in other years. It remains unclear how important anthropogenic forcing may be in causing such increased hurricane activity.
Science, this issue p. 794
Abstract
Here we explore factors potentially linked to the enhanced major hurricane activity in the Atlantic Ocean during 2017. Using a suite of high-resolution model experiments, we show that the increase in 2017 major hurricanes was not primarily caused by La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean but rather triggered mainly by pronounced warm sea surface conditions in the tropical North Atlantic. Further, we superimpose a similar pattern of North Atlantic surface warming on data for long-term increasing sea surface temperature (a product of increases in greenhouse gas concentrations and decreases in aerosols) to show that this warming trend will likely lead to even higher numbers of major hurricanes in the future. The key factor controlling Atlantic major hurricane activity appears to be the degree to which the tropical Atlantic warms relative to the rest of the global ocean.
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Supplementary Material
Summary
Materials and Methods
Figs. S1 to S8
Tables S1 and S2
Resources
File (aat6711_murakami_sm.pdf)
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Volume 362 | Issue 6416
16 November 2018
16 November 2018
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Copyright © 2018 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.
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Submission history
Received: 22 March 2018
Accepted: 14 September 2018
Published in print: 16 November 2018
Acknowledgments
We thank X. Yan, M. Bushuk, K. Gao, and two anonymous reviewers for suggestions and comments. Funding: H.M. prepared this report under awards NA14OAR4320106 (the Cooperative Institute for Climate Science) and NA14OAR4830101 (the Sandy Supplemental) from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, U.S. Department of Commerce. The statements, findings, conclusions, and recommendations are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration or the U.S. Department of Commerce. Author contributions: H.M. designed the study, carried out the experiments, analyzed the results, and wrote the manuscript. R.G. carried out the retrospective and real-time seasonal forecasts. E.L analyzed the observed MH frequency and climate indices. R.G., T.L.D and P.-C.H. discussed the results with H.M. and made comments on the manuscript. Competing interests: The authors declare no competing interests. Data and materials availability: The source code of the climate model can be accessed at www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cm2-5-and-flor/. The predicted tropical cyclone tracks through the idealized experiments are available online at ftp://nomads.gfdl.noaa.gov/users/Hiroyuki.Murakami/GFDL-HiFLOR/2017MH/.
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