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Research Article

A human-driven decline in global burned area

N. Andela https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8241-6143 [email protected], D. C. Morton https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2226-1124, L. Giglio, Y. Chen https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0993-7081, G. R. van der Werf https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9042-8630, P. S. Kasibhatla https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3562-3737, R. S. DeFries https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3332-4621, G. J. Collatz https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7983-3694, S. Hantson https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4607-9204, S. Kloster https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8916-4540, D. Bachelet https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4862-9495, M. Forrest https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1858-3489, G. Lasslop https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9939-1459, F. Li https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3686-2257, S. Mangeon https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3510-0717, J. R. Melton https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9414-064X, C. Yue https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0026-237X, and J. T. Randerson https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6559-7387
Science • 30 Jun 2017 • Vol 356, Issue 6345 • pp. 1356-1362 • DOI: 10.1126/science.aal4108
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Burn less, baby, burn less

Humans have, and always have had, a major impact on wildfire activity, which is expectedto increase in our warming world. Andela et al. use satellite data toshow that, unexpectedly, global burned area declined by ∼25% over the past 18years, despite the influence of climate. The decrease has been largest in savannas andgrasslands because of agricultural expansion and intensification. The decline of burnedarea has consequences for predictions of future changes to the atmosphere, vegetation,and the terrestrial carbon sink.
Science, this issue p. 1356

Abstract

Fire is an essential Earth system process that alters ecosystem and atmospheric composition. Here we assessed long-term fire trends using multiple satellite data sets. We found that global burned area declined by 24.3 ± 8.8% over the past 18 years. The estimated decrease in burned area remained robust after adjusting for precipitation variability and was largest in savannas. Agricultural expansion and intensification were primary drivers of declining fire activity. Fewer and smaller fires reduced aerosol concentrations, modified vegetation structure, and increased the magnitude of the terrestrial carbon sink. Fire models were unable to reproduce the pattern and magnitude of observed declines, suggesting that they may overestimate fire emissions in future projections. Using economic and demographic variables, we developed a conceptual model for predicting fire in human-dominated landscapes.
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Supplementary Material

Summary

Materials and Methods
Figs. S1 to S18
Tables S1 to S6
References (41–90)

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Volume 356 | Issue 6345
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Published in print: 30 June 2017

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Acknowledgments

N.A, Y.C., and J.T.R. received funding from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (grant GBMF3269). D.C.M. was supported by NASA’s Interdisciplinary Science and Carbon Monitoring System Programs. G.R.v.d.W. was supported by the Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO), S.H. by the EU FP7 projects BACCHUS (grant 603445) and LUC4C (grant 603542), F.L. by the National Science Foundation of China (grant 41475099), and C.Y. by the European Space Agency Fire_CCI project. We thank M. N. Deeter for helpful suggestions on the CO analysis. The authors declare that they have no competing interests. Data used in this study are available at www.globalfiredata.org, https://reverb.echo.nasa.gov/, http://gpcp.umd.edu/, www.fao.org, and http://web.ornl.gov/sci/landscan/ and are described in more detail in the supplementary materials. FireMIP model simulation output is archived with the supporting information, and full data sets are available on request.

Authors

Affiliations

N. Andela* https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8241-6143 [email protected]
Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
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D. C. Morton https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2226-1124
Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
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L. Giglio
Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA.
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Y. Chen https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0993-7081
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
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G. R. van der Werf https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9042-8630
Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, Netherlands.
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P. S. Kasibhatla https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3562-3737
Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA.
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R. S. DeFries https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3332-4621
Department of Ecology, Evolution, and Environmental Biology, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027, USA.
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G. J. Collatz https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7983-3694
Biospheric Sciences Laboratory, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA.
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S. Hantson https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4607-9204
Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research, Atmospheric Environmental Research, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany.
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S. Kloster https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8916-4540
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20164 Hamburg, Germany.
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D. Bachelet https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4862-9495
Biological and Ecological Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR 97331, USA.
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M. Forrest https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1858-3489
Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Institute (BiK-F), Senckenberganlage 25, 60325 Frankfurt am Main, Germany.
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G. Lasslop https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9939-1459
Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstraße 53, 20164 Hamburg, Germany.
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F. Li https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3686-2257
International Center for Climate and Environmental Sciences, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, China.
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S. Mangeon https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3510-0717
Department of Physics, Imperial College London, London, UK.
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J. R. Melton https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9414-064X
Climate Research Division, Environment Canada, Victoria, BC V8W 2Y2, Canada.
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C. Yue https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0026-237X
Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement–Institute Pierre Simon Laplace, Commissariat à l’Énergie Atomique et aux Énergies Alternatives (CEA)–Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)–Université de Versailles Saint Quentin, Université Paris-Saclay, 91198 Gif-sur-Yvette, France.
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J. T. Randerson https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6559-7387
Department of Earth System Science, University of California, Irvine, CA 92697, USA.
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Funding Information

Notes

*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

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