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Crossing “safe” limits for biodiversity loss

The planetary boundaries framework attempts to set limits for biodiversity loss within which ecological function is relatively unaffected. Newbold et al. present a quantitative global analysis of the extent to which the proposed planetary boundary has been crossed (see the Perspective by Oliver). Using over 2 million records for nearly 40,000 terrestrial species, they modeled the response of biodiversity to land use and related pressures and then estimated, at a spatial resolution of ∼1 km2, the extent and spatial patterns of changes in local biodiversity. Across 65% of the terrestrial surface, land use and related pressures have caused biotic intactness to decline beyond 10%, the proposed “safe” planetary boundary. Changes have been most pronounced in grassland biomes and biodiversity hotspots.
Science, this issue p. 288; see also p. 220

Abstract

Land use and related pressures have reduced local terrestrial biodiversity, but it is unclear how the magnitude of change relates to the recently proposed planetary boundary (“safe limit”). We estimate that land use and related pressures have already reduced local biodiversity intactness—the average proportion of natural biodiversity remaining in local ecosystems—beyond its recently proposed planetary boundary across 58.1% of the world’s land surface, where 71.4% of the human population live. Biodiversity intactness within most biomes (especially grassland biomes), most biodiversity hotspots, and even some wilderness areas is inferred to be beyond the boundary. Such widespread transgression of safe limits suggests that biodiversity loss, if unchecked, will undermine efforts toward long-term sustainable development.
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Supplementary Material

Summary

Materials and Methods
Figs. S1 to S7
Tables S1 to S7
References (31457)

Resources

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References and Notes

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Science
Volume 353 | Issue 6296
15 July 2016

Submission history

Received: 11 January 2016
Accepted: 6 June 2016
Published in print: 15 July 2016

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Acknowledgments

We thank the hundreds of researchers who contributed their data to the PREDICTS project and G. Mace and N. Burgess for helpful comments on an earlier draft. This work was funded by the UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC, grants NE/J011193/2 and NE/L002515/1), the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (grant BB/F017324/1), a Hans Rausing Ph.D. scholarship, and the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre. This is a contribution from the Imperial College Grand Challenges in Ecosystem and the Environment Initiative and the Sussex Sustainability Research Programme. PREDICTS is endorsed by the Group on Earth Observations Biodiversity Observation Network (GEO-BON). The underlying biodiversity data can be downloaded from the Natural History Museum’s Data Portal (http://dx.doi.org/10.5519/0073893).

Authors

Affiliations

United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
Lawrence N. Hudson
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Andrew P. Arnell
United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
Sara Contu
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Adriana De Palma
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
Simon Ferrier
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Land and Water Flagship, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia.
Samantha L. L. Hill
United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Andrew J. Hoskins
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO) Land and Water Flagship, Canberra, Australian Capital Territory 2601, Australia.
Igor Lysenko
Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
Helen R. P. Phillips
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
Victoria J. Burton
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Charlotte W. T. Chng
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Susan Emerson
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Di Gao
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Gwilym Pask-Hale
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Jon Hutton
United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
Luc Hoffmann Institute, World Wildlife Fund (WWF) International, 1196 Gland, Switzerland.
Martin Jung
Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate, Natural History Museum of Denmark, University of Copenhagen, Universitetsparken 15, DK-2100 Copenhagen Ø, Denmark.
School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QG, UK.
Katia Sanchez-Ortiz
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Benno I. Simmons
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.
Sarah Whitmee
Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, Department of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, UK.
Hanbin Zhang
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Jörn P. W. Scharlemann
United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge CB3 0DL, UK.
School of Life Sciences, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QG, UK.
Andy Purvis
Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, Cromwell Road, London SW7 5BD, UK.
Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, London SL5 7PY, UK.

Notes

*Corresponding author. Email: [email protected]

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