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Radiocarbon constraints imply reduced carbon uptake by soils during the 21st century

Science
23 Sep 2016
Vol 353, Issue 6306
pp. 1419-1424

Abstract

Soil is the largest terrestrial carbon reservoir and may influence the sign and magnitude of carbon cycle–climate feedbacks. Many Earth system models (ESMs) estimate a significant soil carbon sink by 2100, yet the underlying carbon dynamics determining this response have not been systematically tested against observations. We used 14C data from 157 globally distributed soil profiles sampled to 1-meter depth to show that ESMs underestimated the mean age of soil carbon by a factor of more than six (430 ± 50 years versus 3100 ± 1800 years). Consequently, ESMs overestimated the carbon sequestration potential of soils by a factor of nearly two (40 ± 27%). These inconsistencies suggest that ESMs must better represent carbon stabilization processes and the turnover time of slow and passive reservoirs when simulating future atmospheric carbon dioxide dynamics.

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Supplementary Material

Summary

Materials and Methods
Sensitivity Analysis Results
Fully Coupled Simulation Analysis
Figs. S1 to S11
Tables S1 to S7
References (37102)

Resources

File (he-sm.pdf)

References and Notes

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