Accelerating extinction risk from climate change
Predicting extinction in a changing world
There is great interest in understanding how species might respond to our changing climate, but predictions have varied greatly. Urban looked at over 130 studies to identify the level of risk that climate change poses to species and the specific traits and characteristics that contribute to risk (see the Perspective by Hille Ris Lambers). If climate changes proceed as expected, one in six species could face extinction. Several regions, including South America, Australia, and New Zealand, face the greatest risk. Understanding these patterns will help us to prepare for, and hopefully prevent, climate-related loss of biodiversity.
Abstract
Current predictions of extinction risks from climate change vary widely depending on the specific assumptions and geographic and taxonomic focus of each study. I synthesized published studies in order to estimate a global mean extinction rate and determine which factors contribute the greatest uncertainty to climate change–induced extinction risks. Results suggest that extinction risks will accelerate with future global temperatures, threatening up to one in six species under current policies. Extinction risks were highest in South America, Australia, and New Zealand, and risks did not vary by taxonomic group. Realistic assumptions about extinction debt and dispersal capacity substantially increased extinction risks. We urgently need to adopt strategies that limit further climate change if we are to avoid an acceleration of global extinctions.
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Supplementary Material
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References and Notes
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Science
Volume 348 | Issue 6234
1 May 2015
1 May 2015
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Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Submission history
Received: 16 December 2014
Accepted: 17 March 2015
Published in print: 1 May 2015
Acknowledgments
The data reported in this paper are tabulated in the supplementary materials. Research was supported by NSF DEB-1119877 and PLR-1417754 and the James S. McDonnell Foundation. I thank M. Tingley, J. Urban, and all the authors of the studies who made this meta-analysis possible.
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