Climate Impact of Increasing Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide
Abstract
The global temperature rose by 0.2°C between the middle 1960's and 1980, yielding a warming of 0.4°C in the past century. This temperature increase is consistent with the calculated greenhouse effect due to measured increases of atmospheric carbon dioxide. Variations of volcanic aerosols and possibly solar luminosity appear to be primary causes of observed fluctuations about the mean trend of increasing temperature. It is shown that the anthropogenic carbon dioxide warming should emerge from the noise level of natural climate variability by the end of the century, and there is a high probability of warming in the 1980's. Potential effects on climate in the 21st century include the creation of drought-prone regions in North America and central Asia as part of a shifting of climatic zones, erosion of the West Antarctic ice sheet with a consequent worldwide rise in sea level, and opening of the fabled Northwest Passage.
References
CARBON DIOXIDE CLIMA (1979).
ENERGY CLIMATE (1977).
Journal of Geophysical Research 82 28 (1977).
Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 85 A13 (1980).
SCIENCE 191: 1131 (1976).
UNDERSTANDING CLIMAT (1975).
BARNETT, T.P., ESTIMATING VARIABILITY OF SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE IN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE, MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 106: 1353 (1978).
BORZENKOVA, I.I., METEOROLOGIYA I GIDROLOGIYA 7: 27 (1976).
BRINKMANN, WAR, QUATERN RES 6: 335 (1976).
BROECKER, W.S., CLIMATIC CHANGE - ARE WE ON BRINK OF A PRONOUNCED GLOBAL WARMING, SCIENCE 189: 460 (1975).
BROECKER, W.S., FATE OF FOSSIL-FUEL CARBON-DIOXIDE AND THE GLOBAL CARBON BUDGET, SCIENCE 206: 409 (1979).
CESS, R.D., BIOSPHERE-ALBEDO FEEDBACK AND CLIMATE MODELING, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 35: 1765 (1978).
CESS, R.D., RADIATIVE-TRANSFER DUE TO ATMOSPHERIC WATER-VAPOR - GLOBAL CONSIDERATIONS OF EARTHS ENERGY-BALANCE, JOURNAL OF QUANTITATIVE SPECTROSCOPY & RADIATIVE TRANSFER 14: 861 (1974).
COBB, W.E., OCEANIC AEROSOL LEVELS DEDUCED FROM MEASUREMENTS OF ELECTRICAL CONDUCTIVITY OF ATMOSPHERE, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 30: 101 (1973).
DAMON, P.E., GLOBAL COOLING, SCIENCE 193: 447 (1976).
GARRETT, C, MIXING IN THE OCEAN INTERIOR, DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS 3: 239 (1979).
HANSEN, J.E., ANN NY ACAD SCI 338: 575 (1980).
HANSEN, J, UNPUBLISHED.
HANSEN, J.E., MOUNT AGUNG ERUPTION PROVIDES TEST OF A GLOBAL CLIMATIC PERTURBATION, SCIENCE 199: 1065 (1978).
HOFFERT, M.I., THE ROLE OF DEEP-SEA HEAT-STORAGE IN THE SECULAR RESPONSE TO CLIMATIC FORCING, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERES 85: 6667 (1980).
HOYT, D.V., VARIATIONS IN SUNSPOT STRUCTURE AND CLIMATE, CLIMATIC CHANGE 2: 79 (1979).
HOYT, D.V., EMPIRICAL DETERMINATION OF THE HEATING OF THE EARTH BY THE CARBON-DIOXIDE GREENHOUSE EFFECT, NATURE 282: 388 (1979).
HUGHES, T, WEST ANTARCTIC ICE STREAMS, REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS 15: 1 (1977).
IDSO, S.B., CLIMATOLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE OF A DOUBLING OF EARTHS ATMOSPHERIC CARBON-DIOXIDE CONCENTRATION, SCIENCE 207: 1462 (1980).
IDSO, S.B., CARBON-DIOXIDE AND CLIMATE - REPLY, SCIENCE 210: 7 (1980).
JENNE, R.L., NCARTNIA111 NAT CTR (1975).
JONES, P.D., CLIM MONIT 9: 43 (1980).
KAO, S.K., LARGE-SCALE MERIDIONAL TRANSPORT OF SENSIBLE HEAT IN WAVENUMBER FREQUENCY SPACE, TELLUS 22: 172 (1970).
KELLOGG, W.W., INFLUENCES OF MANKIND ON CLIMATE, ANNUAL REVIEW OF EARTH AND PLANETARY SCIENCES 7: 63 (1979).
KELLOGG, W.W., CLIMATE CHANGE: 205 (1977).
KELLOGG, W.W., CLIMATE CHANGE SOC (1978).
KONDRATYEV, K.Y., SOLAR RADIATION AND SOLAR ACTIVITY, QUARTERLY JOURNAL OF THE ROYAL METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 96: 509 (1970).
LACIS, A, NASA WEATHER CLIMATE (1979).
LAMB, H.H., CLIMATE PRESENT PAST 2 (1977).
LAMB, H.H., VOLCANIC DUST IN ATMOSPHERE - WITH A CHRONOLOGY AND ASSESSMENT OF ITS METEOROLOGICAL SIGNIFICANCE, PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY OF LONDON SERIES A-MATHEMATICAL AND PHYSICAL SCIENCES 266: 425 (1970).
MADDEN, R.A., ESTIMATES OF AUTOCORRELATIONS AND SPECTRA OF SEASONAL MEAN TEMPERATURES OVER NORTH-AMERICA, MONTHLY WEATHER REVIEW 105: 9 (1977).
MADDEN, R.A., DETECTING CLIMATE CHANGE DUE TO INCREASING CARBON-DIOXIDE, SCIENCE 209: 763 (1980).
MANABE, S, THERMAL EQUILIBRIUM OF THE ATMOSPHERE WITH A CONVECTIVE ADJUSTMENT, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 21: 361 (1964).
MANABE, S, THERMAL EQUILIBRIUM OF ATMOSPHERE WITH A GIVEN DISTRIBUTION OF RELATIVE HUMIDITY, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 24: 241 (1967).
MANABE, S, SENSITIVITY OF A GLOBAL CLIMATE MODEL TO AN INCREASE OF CO2 CONCENTRATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERES 85: 5529 (1980).
MANABE, S, CO2-CLIMATE SENSITIVITY STUDY WITH A MATHEMATICAL-MODEL OF THE GLOBAL CLIMATE, NATURE 282: 491 (1979).
MASS, C, STATISTICAL EVIDENCE ON INFLUENCE OF SUNSPOTS AND VOLCANIC DUST ON LONG-TERM TEMPERATURE RECORDS, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 34: 1995 (1977).
MCCLATCHEY, R.A., TR730096 US AIR FORC (1973).
MENDONCA, B.G., GEOPHYS MONIT CLIM C: 7 (1979).
MERCER, J.H., WEST ANTARCTIC ICE SHEET AND CO2 GREENHOUSE EFFECT - THREAT OF DISASTER, NATURE 271: 321 (1978).
MITCHELL, J.M., GLOBAL EFFECTS ENV P: 139 (1970).
MULLER, P, NOTE ON THE VARIABILITY OF EDDY DIFFUSION-COEFFICIENTS IN THE OCEAN, DYNAMICS OF ATMOSPHERES AND OCEANS 3: 267 (1979).
NEWELL, R.E., QUESTIONS CONCERNING THE POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF ANTHROPOGENIC CO2 ON ATMOSPHERIC-TEMPERATURE, JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY 18: 822 (1979).
OESCHGER, H, BOX DIFFUSION-MODEL TO STUDY CARBON-DIOXIDE EXCHANGE IN NATURE, TELLUS 27: 168 (1975).
OLIVER, R.C., RESPONSE OF HEMISPHERIC MEAN TEMPERATURE TO STRATOSPHERIC DUST - EMPIRICAL APPROACH, JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY 15: 933 (1976).
PARKINSON, C.L., ARCTIC SEA ICE DECAY SIMULATED FOR A CO2-INDUCED TEMPERATURE RISE, CLIMATIC CHANGE 2: 149 (1979).
POLLACK, J.B., J GEOPHYS RES 81: 1971 (1976).
RAMANATHAN, V, GREENHOUSE EFFECT DUE TO CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS - CLIMATIC IMPLICATIONS, SCIENCE 190: 50 (1975).
RASMUSSEN, R.A., INCREASE IN THE CONCENTRATION OF ATMOSPHERIC METHANE, ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT 15: 883 (1981).
ROBERTS, R.E., INFRARED CONTINUUM ABSORPTION BY ATMOSPHERIC WATER-VAPOR IN 8-12-MUM WINDOW, APPLIED OPTICS 15: 2085 (1976).
ROBOCK, A, LITTLE ICE AGE - NORTHERN-HEMISPHERE AVERAGE OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL CALCULATIONS, SCIENCE 206: 1402 (1979).
ROOSEN, R, BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY 54: 307 (1979).
ROTTY, R.M., IEA809 OAK RIDG ASS (1980).
ROWLAND, F.S., CHLOROFLUOROMETHANES IN ENVIRONMENT, REVIEWS OF GEOPHYSICS 13: 1 (1975).
SAGAN, C, ANTHROPOGENIC ALBEDO CHANGES AND THE EARTHS CLIMATE, SCIENCE 206: 1363 (1979).
Schneider, S. H., Journal of Geophysical Research 86: 3135 (1981).
SCHNEIDER, S.H., VOLCANIC DUST, SUNSPOTS, AND TEMPERATURE TRENDS, SCIENCE 190: 741 (1975).
SIEGENTHALER, U, PREDICTING FUTURE ATMOSPHERIC CARBON-DIOXIDE LEVELS, SCIENCE 199: 388 (1978).
THOMPSON, S.L., SEASONAL ZONAL ENERGY-BALANCE CLIMATE MODEL WITH AN INTERACTIVE LOWER LAYER, JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-OCEANS AND ATMOSPHERES 84: 2401 (1979).
TOON, O.B., GLOBAL AVERAGE MODEL OF ATMOSPHERIC AEROSOLS FOR RADIATIVE-TRANSFER CALCULATIONS, JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY 15: 225 (1976).
WANG, W.C., EFFECT OF ICE-ALBEDO FEEDBACK ON GLOBAL SENSITIVITY IN A ONE-DIMENSIONAL RADIATIVE-CONVECTIVE CLIMATE MODEL, JOURNAL OF THE ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES 37: 545 (1980).
WANG, W.C., GREENHOUSE EFFECTS DUE TO MAN-MADE PERTURBATIONS OF TRACE GASES, SCIENCE 194: 685 (1976).
Weiss, R., Journal of Geophysical Research 86: 7185 (1981).
WILLSON, R.C., OBSERVATIONS OF SOLAR IRRADIANCE VARIABILITY, SCIENCE 211: 700 (1981).
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Already a Subscriber?Sign In
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Science
Volume 213 | Issue 4511
28 August 1981
28 August 1981
Copyright
1981 by the American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Submission history
Published in print: 28 August 1981
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Article Usage
Altmetrics
Citations
Export citation
Select the format you want to export the citation of this publication.
Cited by
- Accelerating extinction risk from climate change, Science, 348, 6234, (571-573), (2021)./doi/10.1126/science.aaa4984
- Detecting Climatic Change Signals: Are There Any "Fingerprints"?, Science, 263, 5145, (341-347), (1994)./doi/10.1126/science.263.5145.341
- The Greenhouse Effect: Science and Policy, Science, 243, 4892, (771-781), (1989)./doi/10.1126/science.243.4892.771
- Tropical Forests and the Global Carbon Cycle, Science, 239, 4835, (42-47), (1988)./doi/10.1126/science.239.4835.42
- Precipitation Fluctuations over Northern Hemisphere Land Areas Since the Mid-19th Century, Science, 237, 4811, (171-175), (1987)./doi/10.1126/science.237.4811.171
- Climate Response Times: Dependence on Climate Sensitivity and Ocean Mixing, Science, 229, 4716, (857-859), (1985)./doi/10.1126/science.229.4716.857
- The Oceanic Carbonate System: A Reassessment of Biogenic Controls, Science, 226, 4678, (1074-1077), (1984)./doi/10.1126/science.226.4678.1074
- Contribution of Small Glaciers to Global Sea Level, Science, 226, 4681, (1418-1421), (1984)./doi/10.1126/science.226.4681.1418
- Global Mean Sea Level: Indicator of Climate Change?, Science, 219, 4587, (997-997), (1983)./doi/10.1126/science.219.4587.997-a
- Global Mean Sea Level: Indicator of Climate Change?, Science, 219, 4587, (996-996), (1983)./doi/10.1126/science.219.4587.996
Loading...
View Options
Get Access
Log in to view the full text
AAAS login provides access to Science for AAAS Members, and access to other journals in the Science family to users who have purchased individual subscriptions.
- Become a AAAS Member
- Activate your AAAS ID
- Purchase Access to Other Journals in the Science Family
- Account Help
Log in via OpenAthens.
Log in via Shibboleth.
More options
Purchase digital access to this article
Download and print this article for your personal scholarly, research, and educational use.
Buy a single issue of Science for just $15 USD.
View options
PDF format
Download this article as a PDF file
Download PDF