The weakening summer circulation in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes
Smaller differences and greater extremes
Has recent rapid warming in the Arctic affected weather elsewhere in the world? Coumou et al. find that some key measures of atmospheric circulation in the Northern Hemisphere have weakened during the summer. This change has been caused by the reduction of the temperature difference between mid-latitudes and the North Pole. As summertime circulation has decreased in intensity, episodes of hot weather have become more persistent because there are fewer storms to bring cooler conditions.
Science, this issue p. 324
Abstract
Rapid warming in the Arctic could influence mid-latitude circulation by reducing the poleward temperature gradient. The largest changes are generally expected in autumn or winter, but whether significant changes have occurred is debated. Here we report significant weakening of summer circulation detected in three key dynamical quantities: (i) the zonal-mean zonal wind, (ii) the eddy kinetic energy (EKE), and (iii) the amplitude of fast-moving Rossby waves. Weakening of the zonal wind is explained by a reduction in the poleward temperature gradient. Changes in Rossby waves and EKE are consistent with regression analyses of climate model projections and changes over the seasonal cycle. Monthly heat extremes are associated with low EKE, and thus the observed weakening might have contributed to more persistent heat waves in recent summers.
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Supplementary Material
Summary
Text S1 to S6
Figs. S1 to S25
Table S1
References
Data Deposition
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Science
Volume 348 | Issue 6232
17 April 2015
17 April 2015
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Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
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Received: 26 September 2014
Accepted: 26 February 2015
Published in print: 17 April 2015
Acknowledgments
We thank the CMIP5 climate modeling groups and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and NCEP-NCAR for making their model and reanalysis data available. Comments by three anonymous reviewers, S. Rahmstorf, and P. Eickemeier have considerably improved the manuscript. Data presented in this manuscript will be archived for at least 10 years by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research. The work was supported by the German Research Foundation (grant no. CO994/2-1) and the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (grant no. 01LN1304A). D.C. designed the research; D.C., J.L., and J.B. performed the analysis; and D.C., J.L., and J.B. wrote the manuscript.
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