A Reconciled Estimate of Ice-Sheet Mass Balance
Warming and Melting
Mass loss from the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica account for a large fraction of global sea-level rise. Part of this loss is because of the effects of warmer air temperatures, and another because of the rising ocean temperatures to which they are being exposed. Joughin et al. (p. 1172) review how ocean-ice interactions are impacting ice sheets and discuss the possible ways that exposure of floating ice shelves and grounded ice margins are subject to the influences of warming ocean currents. Estimates of the mass balance of the ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica have differed greatly—in some cases, not even agreeing about whether there is a net loss or a net gain—making it more difficult to project accurately future sea-level change. Shepherd et al. (p. 1183) combined data sets produced by satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry to construct a more robust ice-sheet mass balance for the period between 1992 and 2011. All major regions of the two ice sheets appear to be losing mass, except for East Antarctica. All told, mass loss from the polar ice sheets is contributing about 0.6 millimeters per year (roughly 20% of the total) to the current rate of global sea-level rise.
Abstract
We combined an ensemble of satellite altimetry, interferometry, and gravimetry data sets using common geographical regions, time intervals, and models of surface mass balance and glacial isostatic adjustment to estimate the mass balance of Earth’s polar ice sheets. We find that there is good agreement between different satellite methods—especially in Greenland and West Antarctica—and that combining satellite data sets leads to greater certainty. Between 1992 and 2011, the ice sheets of Greenland, East Antarctica, West Antarctica, and the Antarctic Peninsula changed in mass by –142 ± 49, +14 ± 43, –65 ± 26, and –20 ± 14 gigatonnes year−1, respectively. Since 1992, the polar ice sheets have contributed, on average, 0.59 ± 0.20 millimeter year−1 to the rate of global sea-level rise.
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Supplementary Material
Summary
Materials and Methods
Supplementary Text
Figs. S1 to S13
Tables S1 to S11
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References and Notes
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Science
Volume 338 | Issue 6111
30 November 2012
30 November 2012
Copyright
Copyright © 2012, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Submission history
Received: 30 July 2012
Accepted: 5 October 2012
Published in print: 30 November 2012
Acknowledgments
This Ice Sheet Mass Balance Exercise (IMBIE) was facilitated by the European Space Agency and NASA and by a Phillip Leverhulme Prize awarded to A.S. The work was additionally supported by the European Union Framework Programme 7 ice2sea program (ice2sea publication 125), the Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory, NASA (grants NNX09AE47G and NNX08AD64G), the Netherlands Organization for Scientific Research, the Netherlands Polar Program, the UK Natural Environment Research Council, and the NSF. Antarctic glacier ice thickness data used in the IOM calculations were acquired by NASA IceBridge and the Centro de Estudios Cientifico Chile, and additional estimates were provided by J. Bamber and J. Griggs. E. van Meijgaard provided assistance with the RACMO model.
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