Evolution of the Earliest Horses Driven by Climate Change in the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

In most mammals, individual body sizes tend to be smaller in warmer regions and larger in cooler regions. Secord et al. (p. 959; see the Perspective by Smith) examined a high-resolution 175,000-year record of equid fossils deposited over a past climate shift—the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum—for changes in body size. Using oxygen isotopes collected from the teeth of co-occurring mammal species to track prevailing environmental temperature, a clear decrease in equid body size was seen during 130,000 years of warming, followed by a distinct increase as the climate cooled at the end of the period. These results indicate that temperature directly influenced body size in the past and may continue to have an influence as our current climate changes.

Body size plays a critical role in mammalian ecology and physiology. Previous research has shown that many mammals became smaller during the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), but the timing and magnitude of that change relative to climate change have been unclear. A high-resolution record of continental climate and equid body size change shows a directional size decrease of ~30% over the first ~130,000 years of the PETM, followed by a ~76% increase in the recovery phase of the PETM. These size changes are negatively correlated with temperature inferred from oxygen isotopes in mammal teeth and were probably driven by shifts in temperature and possibly high atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. These findings could be important for understanding mammalian evolutionary responses to future global warming.