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Simultaneously Mitigating Near-Term Climate Change and Improving Human Health and Food Security
Why Wait?
Tropospheric ozone can be dangerous to human health, can be harmful to vegetation, and is a major contributor to climate warming. Black carbon also has significant negative effects on health and air quality and causes warming of the atmosphere. Shindell et al. (p. 183) present results of an analysis of emissions, atmospheric processes, and impacts for each of these pollutants. Seven measures were identified that, if rapidly implemented, would significantly reduce global warming over the next 50 years, with the potential to prevent millions of deaths worldwide from outdoor air pollution. Furthermore, some crop yields could be improved by decreasing agricultural damage. Most of the measures thus appear to have economic benefits well above the cost of their implementation.
Abstract
Tropospheric ozone and black carbon (BC) contribute to both degraded air quality and global warming. We considered ~400 emission control measures to reduce these pollutants by using current technology and experience. We identified 14 measures targeting methane and BC emissions that reduce projected global mean warming ~0.5°C by 2050. This strategy avoids 0.7 to 4.7 million annual premature deaths from outdoor air pollution and increases annual crop yields by 30 to 135 million metric tons due to ozone reductions in 2030 and beyond. Benefits of methane emissions reductions are valued at $700 to $5000 per metric ton, which is well above typical marginal abatement costs (less than $250). The selected controls target different sources and influence climate on shorter time scales than those of carbon dioxide–reduction measures. Implementing both substantially reduces the risks of crossing the 2°C threshold.
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Published In
Science
Volume 335 | Issue 6065
13 January 2012
13 January 2012
Copyright
Copyright © 2012, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Submission history
Received: 20 June 2011
Accepted: 28 November 2011
Published in print: 13 January 2012
Acknowledgments
Funding was provided by UNEP and the World Meteorlogical Organization (WMO), NASA’s Applied Sciences and Atmospheric Chemistry Modeling and Analysis Programs, and the Clean Air Task Force to IIASA. We thank all the authors and reviewers who contributed to the UNEP/WMO Integrated Assessment of Black Carbon and Tropospheric Ozone.
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