Comment on "Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment"
Abstract
Analyses of tropical cyclone records from the western North Pacific reveal that the recent increase in occurrence of intense typhoons reported by Webster et al. (Reports, 16 Sep. 2005, p. 1844) is not a trend. Rather, it is likely a part of the large interdecadal variations in the number of intense typhoons related to similar temporal fluctuations in the atmospheric environment.
Get full access to this article
View all available purchase options and get full access to this article.
Already a Subscriber?Sign In
References and Notes
1
P. J. Webster, G. J. Holland, J. C. Curry, H.-R. Chang, Science309, 1844 (2005).
2
Tropical storms have maximum wind speeds between 63 and 118 km hour–1, and typhoons have maximum wind speeds greater than 118 km hour–1.
3
Joint Typhoon Warning Center, www.npmoc.navy.mil/jtwc/best_tracks/wpindex.html.
4
Aircraft reconnaissance of typhoons in the WNP was made by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center from 1959 to 1987 for selected TCs.
5
J. C. L. Chan, K. S. Liu, J. Clim.17, 4590 (2004).
6
S. J. Camargo, A. H. Sobel, J. Clim.18, 2996 (2005).
7
K. Emanuel, Nature436, 686 (2005).
8
A description of the Saffir-Simpson scale can be found at www.aoml.noaa.gov/general/lib/laescae.html.
9
The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (4) used a statistical technique called principal component analysis (PCA) to represent the two-dimensional fields of each of these three parameters. With the PCA, the major temporal variations (called principal components) of a field can be identified. For each time period, a value (coefficient) can be assigned corresponding to the amplitude of the principal component in that period. In this particular case, a positive coefficient gives an atmospheric flow with a stronger rotational flow (VORT), a weaker vertical shear (SHEAR), and more moist static energy (MSE), all of which are favorable conditions for typhoon formation and intensification (4). The data for these fields come from the “reanalyses” of the U.S. National Centers for Environmental Prediction.
10
K. E. Trenberth, Science308, 1753 (2005).
11
Suggestions from C. Landsea of the U.S. National Hurricane Center and J. Kepert of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology are much appreciated. This work was supported by City University of Hong Kong grant 9610021.
Information & Authors
Information
Published In
Science
Volume 311 | Issue 5768
24 March 2006
24 March 2006
Copyright
American Association for the Advancement of Science.
Submission history
Received: 18 October 2005
Accepted: 14 February 2006
Published in print: 24 March 2006
Authors
Metrics & Citations
Metrics
Article Usage
Altmetrics
Citations
Export citation
Select the format you want to export the citation of this publication.
Cited by
- Managing Current Climate Variability Can Ensure Water Security Under Climate Change, African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, (2311-2337), (2021).https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-45106-6
- Evolution of Storm Surges over the Little Ice Age Indicated by Aeolian Sand Records on the Coast of the Beibu Gulf, China, Water, 13, 14, (1941), (2021).https://doi.org/10.3390/w13141941
- How does the onset time of El Niño events affect tropical cyclone genesis and intensity over the western North Pacific ? , International Journal of Climatology, (2021).https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7227
- Untangling impacts of global warming and Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation on long-term variability of North Pacific tropical cyclone track density, Science Advances, 6, 41, (2020)./doi/10.1126/sciadv.aba6813
- Latitudinal Response of Storm Activity to Abrupt Climate Change During the Last 6,500 Years, Geophysical Research Letters, 47, 19, (2020).https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL089859
- Managing Current Climate Variability Can Ensure Water Security Under Climate Change, African Handbook of Climate Change Adaptation, (1-27), (2020).https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-42091-8
- Extreme weather events recorded by daily to hourly resolution biogeochemical proxies of marine giant clam shells, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 117, 13, (7038-7043), (2020).https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1916784117
- Sea State, Coastal Ecosystems in Transition, (21-48), (2020).https://doi.org/10.1002/9781119543626.ch3
- Relative vorticity is the major environmental factor controlling tropical cyclone intensification over the Western North Pacific, Atmospheric Research, 237, (104874), (2020).https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2020.104874
- Impact the Temperature of Bangladesh: An Application of Markov Model, Asia Pacific Journal of Energy and Environment, 7, 1, (7-14), (2020).https://doi.org/10.18034/apjee.v7i1.269
- See more
Loading...
View Options
Get Access
Log in to view the full text
AAAS login provides access to Science for AAAS Members, and access to other journals in the Science family to users who have purchased individual subscriptions.
- Become a AAAS Member
- Activate your AAAS ID
- Purchase Access to Other Journals in the Science Family
- Account Help
Log in via OpenAthens.
Log in via Shibboleth.
More options
Purchase digital access to this article
Download and print this article for your personal scholarly, research, and educational use.
Buy a single issue of Science for just $15 USD.
View options
PDF format
Download this article as a PDF file
Download PDF