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Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century

Peter H. Gleick
Science • 28 Nov 2003 • Vol 302, Issue 5650 • pp. 1524-1528 • DOI: 10.1126/science.1089967
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Abstract

Twentieth-century water policies relied on the construction of massive infrastructure in the form of dams, aqueducts, pipelines, and complex centralized treatment plants to meet human demands. These facilities brought tremendous benefits to billions of people, but they also had serious and often unanticipated social, economical, and ecological costs. Many unsolved water problems remain, and past approaches no longer seem sufficient. A transition is under way to a “soft path” that complements centralized physical infrastructure with lower cost community-scale systems, decentralized and open decision-making, water markets and equitable pricing, application of efficient technology, and environmental protection.
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References and Notes

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Several bills were introduced in 2003 in the U.S. Congress that call for building new dams, expanding existing dams, or studying new sites for dams in the western United States, including HR 2828, introduced by Rep. Ken Calvert (R-CA), and HR 309, introduced by Rep. Devin Nunes (R-CA).
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The global population in 1940 was 2.3 billion, as estimated in (35).
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“Water-related diseases” include waterborne (diarrheas, dysenteries, and enteric fevers), water-washed (including infections skin and eye diseases associated with contaminated water), water-based (including parasitic diseases such as schistosomiasis and dracunculiasis), and diseases associated with water-based insect vectors (such as malaria, yellow fever, and dengue). The lower death estimates exclude water-based insect vector diseases. Data on deaths vary; the World Health Organization estimates deaths from diarrheal diseases alone at 2 million to 3 million per year (7).
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The estimate for cumulative AIDS deaths over this same period is 68 million (36).
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Costs for major hydropower dams or large-scale water transfers are not included in this already large number (37).
20
The more expensive estimates assume a cost of around $500 per person—typical of the costs of centralized water systems in developed countries. However, field experience shows that safe and reliable water supply and sanitation services can be provided in urban areas for $35 to 50 per person and in rural areas for less than that when local communities build appropriate-scale technology (38).
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Lovins is to be credited with coining the term “soft path” for energy (39).
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Dual-flush toilets that use only 60 to 70% of the water used by toilets that meet current U.S. standards are widely used in Australia and Japan.
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For a summary of global water scenarios and a complete list of the scenarios and projections used in this figure, see (43).
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Science
Volume 302 | Issue 5650
28 November 2003

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American Association for the Advancement of Science.

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Published in print: 28 November 2003

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Peter H. Gleick
Pacific Institute for Studies in Development, Environment, and Security, Oakland, CA 94612, USA.
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